Baseball is back. And along with the familiar sense of optimism mixed with health concerns is a little extra twinge of uncertainty about what’s in store for 2025.
So where do we start? Perhaps with some of the things we know. The sheer volume of elite talent is staggering. We just saw baseball’s first 50-homer, 50-steal season. We had the first player in 20 years post a slugging percentage over .700. We had two Cy Young winners lead their respective leagues in wins, ERA and strikeouts.
It’s a great time to be a baseball fan.
FANTASY RANKINGS: Top 200 overall players, ranks by position
Power trio at the top
Fantasy managers with the ability to select their draft slots this season will be extremely happy picking in the top three. It’s impossible to make a bad choice when Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge or Bobby Witt are your options.
Ohtani produced one of the greatest all-around offensive seasons in baseball history, hitting .310 with 54 home runs, 59 stolen bases, 134 runs scored and 130 RBI in leading the Dodgers (and countless fantasy teams) to a title.
Judge hit 58 homers – just four short of his American League record – as he put up a ridiculous .322/.458/.701 slash line with 122 runs and 144 RBI.
But neither one gets the top spot in our fantasy rankings. That honor goes to the 24-year-old Witt, who led the majors a year ago with a .322 average while also going 30-30. Although he hasn’t yet reached the stratospheric stat lines Ohtani and Judge have, Witt does own a pristine health history and has additional fantasy value as a shortstop.
Six-man rotations, fewer innings
Another of the great things about this new season is getting to see Ohtani return to the pitcher’s mound, where he posted a stellar 2.84 ERA over the previous three seasons. However, he may not be fully recovered from his elbow injury and ready to face hitters in a game until at least May.
The way the Dodgers manage Ohtani in his dual roles could end up causing fantasy managers headaches. Will he get more off days as a hitter to help him prepare for his turn in the rotation? With the non-pitching shoulder he injured stealing a base in the World Series keep him from running as often?
And when Ohtani does resume pitching, how will it impact the rest of the incredibly talented Dodgers pitching staff – bolstered this offseason by the addition of 23-year-old free agent Roki Sasaki? A group that also includes last offseason’s big signing, fellow Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, could easily morph into a six-man rotation that’s the norm in their homeland. But less frequent opportunities to pitch hurts fantasy values.
Other MLB clubs (the Tampa Bay Rays for one) may also look to use six starters as the general trend toward reducing pitcher workloads continues. Once the benchmark of a solid starter, only four pitchers reached the 200-inning mark in 2024 – Logan Gilbert, Seth Lugo, Logan Webb and Zack Wheeler.
If there’s a fantasy takeaway from this trend, it’s that quality innings from starting pitchers have become more important than quantity.
Plentiful pitching comes with risk
The benefit to the gradual shift that’s occurring is a tremendous depth in the overall pitching pool. We’ve seen it play out in drafts already this year.
Pitching triple crown winners Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes predictably lead the rankings. But even beyond the Top 25 starters, options ranging from consistent veterans to rebound candidates to potential breakouts are everywhere.
Five former Cy Young winners – Jacob deGrom, Sandy Alcantara, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Shane Bieber – are looking to overcome injury issues, much like Chris Sale did in winning last year’s NL Cy Young award.
Meanwhile, Spencer Strider, Brandon Woodruff, Shane McClanahan and Lucas Giolito all have top-six Cy Young finishes on their résumés and are also returning after lost seasons due to injuries.
Even with reduced workloads, these pitchers can be major contributors for fantasy teams. Just be careful not to take on too much risk. The most predictive indicator for pitcher injuries is a previous injury.
PLAYERS OF NOTE: All-Breakout team | All-Sleeper team | All-Risk team | All-Value team | All-Bust team
Scales tilt toward hitters
A huge area of uncertainty involves the two teams playing in different home parks than they did a year ago. Those two parks just happened to be among the six most pitcher-friendly in the majors over the past two seasons.
American League batters rejoice!
The Rays’ move from hurricane-damaged Tropicana Field to Steinbrenner Field in Tampa will give hitters their own short porch in right field to target. In addition, playing outdoors in what will likely be MLB’s warmest weather conditions will help the ball fly farther. Lefty-swinging Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe, as well as powerful rookie Junior Caminero, could benefit most.
Meanwhile, the Athletics are leaving Oakland for Sacramento, where hot temps and far less foul territory should give the majors’ fifth-worst offense a nice boost.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards has also undergone a significant renovation that moved the distant left field wall in considerably.
The former offensive playground has played 12% below the major league average in scoring the past three years. The changes should move it pretty close to neutral.
One word of caution: Before loading up on Rays, A’s and O’s … remember the renovations in Toronto two years ago that were supposed to turn Rogers Centre into a hitter’s paradise? That never materialized.
The best we can do is make educated guesses. That’s why they play the games.