What’s at stake in MLB’s final weekend: Playoff race down to the wire

The six-month slog has been reduced to just three games. Emotional stasis will give way to utter relief.

And Major League Baseball’s playoff picture will finally, probably, be settled this weekend.

“The last few days, after a couple wins, you could feel it, among everybody in here,” says Kansas City Royals pitcher Seth Lugo, whose club went from dead team walking to the postseason doorstep, thanks to a three-game sweep at Washington. “On the bus going back to the hotel – hey, we’re almost there, let’s clinch, let’s celebrate.

“We can taste it.”

Lugo’s Royals will carry a magic number of one into their final series of the weekend at Atlanta, meaning one win over the Braves or a Minnesota loss in any of its three games against Baltimore will usher K.C. into the playoffs for the first time since 2015.

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As teams unpack for one more series as the season ends, four postseason invites and a fair amount of seeding remain in flux. Additionally, a handful of milestones are well within certain superstars’ grasps before their season is locked in forever on their baseball cards.

USA TODAY Sports sorts out the unfinished business entering the season’s final weekend:

AL wild card

What could have been a mess gained a lot more clarity Thursday thanks to late rallies by the Royals and Detroit Tigers that eliminated the Seattle Mariners. The Minnesota Twins are barely breathing, erasing a four-run deficit to the Miami Marlins only to lose a 13-inning heartbreaker, leaving just a little more weekend work for their AL Central overlords.

Baltimore (88-71) can wrap up the No. 1 wild card slot and a home series with one win this weekend at Minnesota, or one Detroit loss.

Kansas City (85-74) has a magic number of one over the Twins to clinch a playoff berth. The Royals, who play at Atlanta, own the tiebreaker against Detroit and have a magic number of three against the Tigers. They cannot finish higher than the No. 2 seed.

Detroit (85-74) has a magic number of one over the Twins to clinch a playoff berth. The Tigers, who play host to the Chicago White Sox, can finish with the No. 1 wild card slot and earn a home wild-card series with three wins this weekend and three Orioles losses.

Minnesota (82-77) must sweep Baltimore this weekend and hope either Detroit or Kansas City are swept; the Twins own the tiebreaker over both clubs.

AL seeding

The East champion New York Yankees (93-66) have a magic number of two against Central champion Cleveland (92-67) to clinch the No. 1 seed; the Yankees, who finish at home against the Pirates, own the tiebreaker over the Guardians, and both teams are assured of a first-round bye.

The West champion Houston Astros (86-73) are locked into the No. 3 seed and will play host to the wild-card club with the worst record in the best-of-three series. The winner of that series advances to play the No. 2 seed in the Division Series.

NL seeding

The West champion Los Angeles Dodgers (95-64) must win one more game than the East champion Philadelphia Phillies (94-65) to clinch the top overall seed in the NL. The Dodgers finish at Colorado; the Phillies are at Washington.

The Central champion Milwaukee Brewers (91-68) are locked into the No. 3 seed and will play host to the wild-card club with the worst record in the best-of-three series. The winner of that series advances to play the No. 2 seed in the Division Series.

NL wild card

Ah, yes, the most convoluted for last.

The San Diego Padres (91-68) have clinched a wild card spot and can ensure the top wild card seed with one win over Arizona and any combination of three wins and New York Mets losses.

The Mets (87-70), Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71) and Atlanta Braves (86-71) are vying for the final two wild card slots. The Mets and Braves have five games remaining, thanks to a makeup doubleheader that will be played Monday at Atlanta if it has a bearing on playoff berths.

 The Braves play Kansas City, the Mets are at Milwaukee and Arizona hosts the Padres this weekend.

With any number of record combinations still remaining, let’s first cut to the tiebreakers:

The Mets and Braves both win tiebreakers against the Diamondbacks.

The Braves lead the season series against the Mets, 6-5, and would ensure a tiebreaker advantage with one win against the Mets.

The onus this weekend is definitely on the Diamondbacks, who would lose out in both two- or three-way tiebreakers. Taking two of three against the Padres means they’re in if Atlanta loses two to Kansas City – or one each to the Royals or New York.

In that scenario, should the Mets win two of three against a Milwaukee team with little to play for, the Mets could eliminate the Braves by winning the opener of the doubleheader and render the second game moot.

Here’s one nightmare scenario for a 90-72 Arizona squad: The Mets sweep Milwaukee, the Braves win two against Kansas City and sweep a pair from a Mets team with little to play for. Everyone finishes 90-72 – and Arizona goes home.

Anyhow, that’s just one permutation. The best advice? Stay tuned!  

Shohei Ohtani: 60-60?

OK, maybe we’re getting ahead of ourselves a bit here.

Ohtani blasted past the previously unprecedented 50-steal, 50-homer mark with a monster game against a last-place foe. Well, he’ll finish this weekend with three games against a last-place foe – with the games played at altitude.

He will enter the Dodgers’ final three games at Colorado’s Coors Field with 53 homers and 56 stolen bases. The way Ohtani has been getting on base and running wild, 60 steals seems like a given.

Can he bang out seven home runs in three games?

Well, that depends on a lot of factors, most notably whether the Dodgers are still playing for seeding with an eye toward the NLCS and World Series. And how much they value staying sharp in the face of a possible five-day layoff before an NL Division Series.

So, odds are against. But just know that Ohtani returns to pitching in 2025, and might not reach these heights again. It will be fascinating to see which numbers he lands on.

Aaron Judge: Another shot at Maris – or himself?

It’s never wise to sleep on Judge.

Yet so much attention has been lavished upon Ohtani, it’s a little easier to somehow overlook the 6-7 slugger in the Bronx. But Judge has homered in five consecutive games, giving him 58 for the season.

And three games to hit two home runs and join Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa as the only players with multiple 60-homer seasons. Three more, and his 2024 campaign equals Roger Maris for No. 2 on the AL single-season homer list.

Four more, and Judge matches his record 62-homer 2022 season. Five more? Well, he is facing the Pirates – though Pittsburgh will start rookie ace Paul Skenes on Saturday.

Jose Ramirez: 40-40?

Ah, such a quaint little statistical plateau.

It’s certainly been easy to overlook what was once an unprecedented power-speed combo, especially with today’s patronizing stolen base rules grossly inflating the stolen-base totals.

But Ramirez somehow remains an underappreciated superstar – and he needs just two homers to join the 40-40 club.

The man is so stunningly consistent, his .867 OPS this year right in the neighborhood of his incredible .856 career mark. Yet Ramirez is on pace for his sixth top-six AL MVP finish – and no trophies to show for it.

This time, he has Judge, Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson to blame for stealing his shine. But 40-40 doesn’t need to be measured against anyone else.

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