CFP scenarios: How each of 8 teams in contention could reach top 4
There’s a scenario where this year’s College Football Playoff doesn’t include the champion of the SEC.
Here’s all that would take: Alabama beating Georgia, Michigan beating Iowa, Washington beating Oregon, Florida State beating Louisville and Texas beating Oklahoma State.
In this case, the top four would begin with the unbeaten Wolverines, unbeaten Huskies and unbeaten Seminoles. While this would be a judgment call by the playoff selection committee, the fourth spot could very well go to Texas, thanks to the Longhorns’ non-conference win in Tuscaloosa earlier this season.
While on the hold-onto-your-butts end of the spectrum, that’s just one of dozens of scenarios that could unfold during conference championship weekend.
Here’s how things could play out for the eight teams still in playoff contention, with each team’s simplest path into the top four with a win and possible avenue with a loss:
Georgia
How the Bulldogs get in:
Beat Alabama.
Georgia has lost all three previous SEC championship game matchups with the Crimson Tide. Winning this one would lock the Bulldogs into the top seed.
How the Bulldogs get in with a loss:
Louisville beats Florida State.Oklahoma State beats Texas.
This would leave Michigan as the No. 1 seed and Washington the No. 2, should the Huskies beat Oregon. (Alabama could rise as many as six spots to No. 2 should UW lose, though the Crimson Tide would match up with the Ducks either way.) With Florida State and Texas also eliminated, Georgia would be in competition for No. 4 with Ohio State, and that’s a comparison the Bulldogs would win.
Michigan
How the Wolverines get in:
Beat Iowa.
The Wolverines would be the No. 2 seed if Georgia beats Alabama.
How the Wolverines get in with a loss:
Georgia beats Alabama.Washington beats Oregon.Louisville beats Florida State.Oklahoma State beats Texas.
This would leave a field of Georgia, Washington and two teams from the Big Ten in the Wolverines and Buckeyes.
Washington
How the Huskies get in:
Beat Oregon.
Washington could be the top seed if Alabama beats Georgia and Michigan loses to Iowa, but the Huskies are guaranteed to be no lower than No. 3.
How the Huskies get in with a loss:
Georgia beats Alabama.Iowa beats Michigan.Louisville beats Florida State.Oklahoma State beats Texas.
The key result is Iowa beating Michigan, since that would make Ohio State the third-place team in the Big Ten; that should eliminate the Buckeyes, though the committee could decide otherwise. With the Tide, Seminoles and Longhorns also out of the mix, the teams left standing would be Georgia, Oregon, Washington and Michigan. While the Huskies would have the better résumé, they’d be dropped to No. 4 in this scenario to avoid a third scheduled matchup with the Ducks.
Florida State
How the Seminoles get in:
Beat Louisville.
Don’t buy into the theory that Florida State could be left out with a win against Louisville. Unbeaten Power Five champions have been and will continue to be locked into the four-team field, so the Seminoles really have nothing to worry about.
How the Seminoles get in with a loss:
No chance.
If Georgia, Michigan and Washington win, one-loss Florida State gets bounced by Texas. If Georgia, Michigan and Texas win, the Seminoles lose the comparison to Oregon. If all four unbeaten teams lose, the playoff would consist of Alabama, Oregon, Georgia and one of Michigan, Ohio State or Washington. Basically, there are guaranteed to be enough one-loss teams still standing after Saturday to keep the Seminoles out of the field with a loss in the ACC championship.
Oregon
How the Ducks get in:
Beat Washington.
Oregon could be the No. 1 seed with wins from Alabama and Iowa. Importantly, though, the Ducks would likely move ahead of unbeaten Florida State and avoid a semifinal matchup with Georgia. (Unless the Ducks would rather play the Bulldogs than Michigan, in which case that’s not a good thing.)
How the Ducks get in with a loss:
No chance.
That would be Oregon’s second loss. Even the fact that both came to an unbeaten Power Five champion and even if both losses are by a single possession won’t be enough for the Ducks.
Ohio State
How the Buckeyes get in:
Georgia beats Alabama.Michigan beats Iowa.Washington beats Oregon.Louisville beats Florida State.Oklahoma State beats Texas.
Yeah, the Buckeyes need help. Specifically, Ohio State must get Oregon, Florida State and Texas out of the equation. As you can see, this scenario demands something very uncomfortable from the Buckeyes’ fan base: rooting for Michigan to beat Iowa.
Texas
How the Longhorns get in:
Beat Oklahoma State.Georgia beats Alabama.Louisville beats Florida State.
First and foremost, Texas needs FSU to lose in order to open up a spot in the field. While wins by Texas and Florida State, in conjunction with an Alabama win, do create the environment where the SEC does not reach the playoff, this also sets up the scenario where the Longhorns are in competition for the fourth spot with the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs. Even if the committee continues to place huge value on the head-to-head win against the Tide, this is a scenario the Longhorns would want to avoid. So to be safe, the easiest way into the top four also includes an Alabama loss.
How the Longhorns get in with a loss:
No chance.
Two-loss Texas is out of the picture.
Alabama
How the Crimson Tide get in:
Beat Georgia.
In this scenario, Alabama would come in ahead of Florida State and meet the Pac-12 champion in the semifinals. As mentioned, the Tide could be the No. 2 seed if Oregon beats Washington and might end up No. 1 if the Ducks win and Iowa tops Michigan.
How the Crimson Tide get in with a loss:
No chance.
Two-loss Alabama has no shot.