March tamed its usual dose of madness throughout the men’s NCAA Tournament’s first week. Cinderella went into hiding. This tournament spoiled us with such a barrage of upsets the past several years, and so a pair of No. 12 seeds winning in the first round felt like a low dose of chaos.
No. 10 Arkansas is the lowest-seeded team left standing in the Sweet 16. The Razorbacks hardly qualify as an all-time underdog story, not after hiring John Calipari and investing in a quality roster built with transfers.
As chalk prevails, here are five burning thoughts and predictions, while we wait for the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16:
1985 Big East will maintain its Final Four record
The SEC struggled throughout the first leg of its final exam. After qualiying a record 14 teams for the tournament, six SEC qualifiers departed before the second round. Another bowed out in Saturday’s second round. By comparison, the Big Ten went 8-0 in first-round games.
The good news for the SEC? It retains prime positioning for a Final Four takeover. The SEC’s sheer volume of qualifiers proves difficult to wipe out. Seven SEC members persist into the Sweet 16. No. 1 Auburn, No. 1 Florida, No. 2 Alabama and No. 2 Tennessee remain in the bracket, in four different regions, setting up the possibility for a conference to claim every Final Four spot for the first time ever. No. 3 Kentucky, No. 6 Ole Miss and Arkansas offer reinforcements.
Considering seeding, volume, and bracket layout, the SEC retains a better chance for more Final Four teams than the Big Ten.
But, multiple snares remain to trap the SEC’s top teams. I predict the SEC advances two teams into the Final Four. That would mean the Big East would maintain its 1985 record of three Final Four qualifiers. Dwayne McClain, Patrick Ewing and Chris Mullin can’t celebrate their record continuing just yet, but put the champagne on ice.
Best of March Madness still to come
In some years, the tournament’s beginning rounds are much more memorable than the ending. Consider the 2023 tournament. In that upset-filled year, No. 15 Princeton reached the Sweet 16 and No. 9 Florida Atlantic crashed the Final Four. It was thrilling – until the finish line, when UConn clubbed San Diego State in the championship.
This year, a Sweet 16 devoid of underdogs creates the opportunity for elite play, competitive matchups and, maybe, if we’re lucky, some buzzer-beating finishes.
This iteration of the tournament won’t be remembered for its first-round entertainment value, but an epic Final Four could be brewing.
Sweet 16 upset special: No. 6 BYU beats No. 2 Alabama
He’s no Jimmer Fredette, but Brigham Young’s Richie Saunders is a headache for opposing defenses. Saunders powered the Cougars into a Sweet 16 date with Alabama.
No. 6 BYU and No. 2 Alabama are two of the nation’s best offensive teams. They’re not so good on defense.
First team to 95 points wins?
Alabama allowed 81 points to Robert Morris in the first round. That defense leaves the Tide vulnerable against a BYU team that drilled 12 3-pointers in a second-round takedown of Wisconsin.
Final Four picks: Good to be a No. 1 seed
Hours after the bracket came out, I picked three No. 1 seeds – Florida, Duke and Houston – plus No. 3 Iowa State to make the Final Four. Ole Miss bounced the Cyclones on Sunday, so my Final Four picks require a vision. I’m sliding in No. 1 Auburn.
Not exactly a bold prediction, I admit. That would mean four No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four for just the second time. It previously occurred in 2008, when Kansas, North Carolina, Memphis and UCLA made history by turning the Final Four into a party exclusive to 1-seeds. Like that 2008 season, no weak link exists on the 1-seed line.
The South region’s stoutness gave me some initial hesitation with Auburn, but the Tigers survived a tough second-round matchup with No. 9 Creighton. More difficult matchups await, including No. 5 Michigan’s twin towers Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. They’ll team up to try to corral Johni Broome in the Sweet 16.
Any of the South’s four remaining teams is good enough to reach the Final Four, but Auburn played like the nation’s best team throughout most of the season, and after struggling toward the end of the season, the Tigers earned back some trust by handling Creighton.
As for Houston, Florida and Duke, nobody is playing better right now than those No. 1 seeds.
National championship pick: Houston beats Florida
No alterations here. I’m sticking with my initial pick after the Cougars advanced to the Sweet 16 for the sixth straight tournament under Kelvin Sampson.
Houston remains incredibly balanced. It’s dependable on offense and defense. A veteran-filled lineup offers several candidates to reach double figures scoring. The Cougars are lethal from 3-point range, and L.J. Cryer is that linchpin guard championship teams need.
Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.