South Region predictions: Auburn is top seed but are Tigers in trouble?
The most common reaction to the South Region’s unveiling Sunday was probably ‘North Carolina?!? Really?!?’
But once you get past the Tar Heels’ surprising inclusion in this year’s NCAA men’s tournament, despite their woeful 1-12 record against Quad 1 opponents, the rest of this region offers plenty of intrigue.
No. 1 seed Auburn has been one of the nation’s best teams all year but is in the midst of a slide and could draw an under-seeded Louisville team in the second round. Michigan State, the No. 2 seed, ran away with the Big Ten regular season title but faltered in the conference tournament and draws a somewhat tricky No. 15 seed in Bryant.
And then, of course, there are the upset candidates − namely No. 12 seed UC San Diego and No. 13 seed Yale, who will square off against Michigan and Texas A&M, respectively.
USA TODAY Sports breaks down the NCAA Tournament South Region:
South Region best first-round matchup: UC San Diego vs. Michigan
No. 12 UC San Diego has the makings of a classic Cinderella team. The Tritons went 30-4, have a surefire star in New Zealand native Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones and more than hold their own in some of the predictive analytic rankings, KenPom among them. But their first-round opponent, No. 5 Michigan, just won the Big Ten tournament title and has more Quad 1 wins this season than all but a handful of teams.
While the 12-5 slot usually gives us some wildly entertaining games, this would could ultimately come down something pretty cut-and-dry: Turnovers. The Tritons lead all Division I men’s basketball teams in turnover margin. The Wolverines are tied for 335th. If those stats carry through in the game, expect UC San Diego to live up to its Cinderella potential.
LEFT OUT: Six teams snubbed by the NCAA men’s tournament
UP AND DOWN: Winners and losers from tournament bracket release
South Region potential upset in first round: New Mexico vs. Marquette
There are no shortage of potential upsets in the South. (See UC San Diego, above.) But we’ll go with No. 10 New Mexico over No. 7 Marquette here, simply because it feels the most likely.
The Golden Eagles got off to a fairly hot start to the season but has won only five of the 12 games that it’s played since the start of February. One could argue that three of those games were against St. John’s, and St. John’s is pretty good. That’s fair. But the fact remains that Marquette is a middling tourney team this year and, in New Mexico, it drew a first-round opponent that should be able to more than match up.
Look for Lobos junior guard Donovan Dent, who ranks eighth in the nation in scoring with an average of 20.6 points per game, to impose his will down the stretch and propel New Mexico to its first tournament victory since 2012.
South Region sleeper: Louisville
Louisville’s seeding didn’t get as much immediate backlash as ACC counterpart North Carolina making the tournament. But given that the Cardinals have won 11 of their past 12 games − with an average margin of victory of nearly 14 points per game − it’s a weird one nonetheless. Case in point: The selection committee put Louisville as a No. 8 seed in the South Region while the most-recent USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll ranked them No. 11… overall.
Now beating Creighton in the first round is no guarantee, and a matchup with top-seeded Auburn would likely follow. But Louisville deserves to be the sleeper pick here because, should they squeak past the Tigers, the rest of the bracket really does open up a bit for them. It would by no means be easy for them to reach the Final Four in their first tournament appearance since 2019, but you can see the path.
South Region winner: Michigan State
The logic behind this pick is simple: Auburn has been amazing this season but started to look vulnerable in recent weeks. And, though it might be cliche, it’s hard to bet against an Izzo-coached team in March. Even in down years, Izzo manages to squeeze a little bit more out of his teams when March Madness comes around; Over 26 career appearances in the NCAA tournament, his teams have won nearly 70% of their games. And this year is not even close to a down year for the Spartans.
Led by a balanced offense that features senior Jaden Akins and freshman Jase Richardson (the son of former Spartan and NBA star Jason Richardson), this squad more closely resembles Izzo’s Elite Eight and Final Four teams than it does the recent one-and-dones. Look for the Spartans to grind out a few tight wins but make it back to the Final Four for the first time since 2019.