The teams rising and falling in the projected NCAA men’s tournament bracket
Pretty much any coach in the country will tell you the number next to their team’s name doesn’t matter, but when it comes to the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, that digit can influence whether a team is a one-and-done participant or on its way to the Final Four.
Of course, having the top seeds won’t ensure a national championship, but it certainly makes the quest for one easier. The better seeded teams get to start the tournament closer to home − greater chance for bigger fan presence − and can get favorable draws while others may have to go through a gauntlet. As the tournament nears, teams are jockeying for position in the field, trying to give themselves the best chance for success in March.
Getting into the tournament is one thing, but it’s a whole other challenge to ensure the best possible path to the Final Four. Here are the times on the rise in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology, and which teams are stumbling down the seed line.
Rising:
Florida
Current projected seed: No. 1 (West)
The Gators became the third SEC team projected to be a top seed, and Florida has the resume to back it up. Although they didn’t look good in a 20-point loss to a depleted Tennessee team Saturday, the Gators have navigated conference play and already owns a victory against the Volunteers. Florida can really make a strong case for its positioning on the road against Auburn on Saturday.
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Texas A&M
Current projected seed: No. 3 (Midwest)
A team contending for a double-bye in the SEC tournament, Texas A&M continues to stockpile on those precious Quad 1 victories with seven of them, the fourth most in the country. The Aggies have won four of their last five games, with the lone defeat coming on a last-second shot against Texas. They are also in one of the easier stretches in its conference schedule, giving the Aggies a prime opportunity to stay hot.
Texas Tech
Current projected seed: No. 4 (Midwest)
The hottest team in the Big 12 is Texas Tech with seven consecutive wins, including a defeat of Houston last weekend. Ranked No. 8 in the NET rankings, the Red Raiders have overcome some bad early season losses with some of the best victories in the conference − they are the only team that can say it has beaten both teams at the top in Arizona and Houston.
St. John’s
Current projected seed: No. 6 (East)
Look who is on top of the Big East. Rick Pitino has New York City rocking with a 11-1 conference record and St. John’s riding a nine-game win streak, the program’s longest since 1984-85. The Red Storm are coming off their best win of the year against Marquette. With 20 wins already, St. John’s can improve its stock by capitalizing on Quad 1 opportunities with only two wins in the category.
Arizona
Current projected seed: No. 4 (East)
Who thought in middle December that Arizona would be contending for a Big 12 title? After a 4-5 start, the Wildcats have gone 12-1 since then, stacking up five Quad 1 wins in the process. After the overtime thriller against Iowa State, Arizona has positioned itself well to be a top four seed and potential being able to play out West in the first weekend of the tournament.
UCLA
Current projected seed: No. 9 (West)
UCLA flirted with the bubble when it couldn’t get a win to start January, and have now moved its way into being a single-digit seed thanks to a six-game win streak. The latest victory came Tuesday against Michigan State, the top team in the Big Ten. The offense has found life and the Bruins are in the running for a double-bye in the conference tournament.
Falling
Iowa State
Current projected seed: No. 2 (West)
Did Caleb Love’s buzzer-beating heave break Iowa State? Since the Arizona guard sank an incredible 3-pointer to force overtime against the Cyclones, they’ve two more times, both in bad fashion. The fell to Kansas State at home over the weekend and then didn’t put up much of a fight Monday against Kansas. The three-game skid has Iowa State tumbling out of the No. 1 seed picture unless it can get healthy quickly.
Oregon
Current projected seed: No. 6 (West)
Oregon started the season with one of the best resumes − a 9-0 record and five Quad 1 victories. However the Ducks have struggled in their first season in the Big Ten, losers of three in a row and four of their last five. They fell to a conference dweller in Minnesota on the road and came back to the West Coast to get trounced by UCLA before losing to Nebraska on Sunday. The eight Quad 1 victories are worth making the tournament, but Oregon isn’t looking like a team that deserves a top 16 seed.
Connecticut
Current projected seed: No. 8 (South)
Connecticut is the team that loves to surprise. One day it looks bad in a loss to Xavier, the next it grinds out a tough road victory against Marquette. Regardless, the impressive wins are starting to cancel out the horrid loses and the odds of making the second weekend aren’t looking good for the defending back-to-back champions. Freshman forward Liam McNeeley is expected to return, and the Huskies will need all the help to find consistency.
Mississippi State
Current projected seed: No. 5 (East)
The grind of the SEC is starting to get to teams like Mississippi State, and it’s resulting in the Bulldogs falling out of the projected top 16. The current stretch hasn’t been kind to Chris Jans’ team with three losses in the last four games. The Bulldogs couldn’t support Josh Hubbard against Alabama, and the offensive struggles continued in a 27-point home loss to Missouri.
North Carolina
Current projected seed: First four out
The brand can only take a team so far. North Carolina has played itself out of the tournament with four losses in five games, and some of those contests being complete head scratchers. Yes, it was going to be nearly impossible to go into Cameron Indoor Stadium and beat a really good Duke team, but the Tar Heels shouldn’t be losing to Stanford at home and collapsing at Pittsburgh. A 1-9 Quad 1 record is not pretty.