Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable.)
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 5.
Here’s where things stand with Week 17 of the 2024 season nearly complete:
NFC playoff picture
x – 1. Minnesota Vikings (14-2), NFC North leaders: They weathered Green Bay’s late surge for a massive win Sunday – one that moves the Vikes atop the conference and leaves them one Week 18 win from wrapping up the division, home-field advantage and a first-round bye in the NFC. Who saw this coming? (Detroit will reclaim this position with a win Monday night against the 49ers, but everything boils down to the regular-season finale.) Remaining schedule: at Lions
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y – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3), NFC East champions: Despite being down to their third-string quarterback, they locked down the division crown Sunday and the No. 2 seed. Not much to play for in Week 18 aside from possibly the single-season rushing record for RB Saquon Barkley. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants
y – 3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6), NFC West champions: They took care of business Saturday against Arizona, and the Commanders clinched the strength-of-victory tiebreaker – meaning the division – for LA on Sunday night. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7), NFC South leaders: Their rout of the Panthers moved them back into first place, and Atlanta’s overtime loss keeps them there. Win next week, and the Bucs earn a fourth consecutive division crown. Remaining schedule: vs. Saints
x – 5. Detroit Lions (13-2), wild card No. 1: They don’t play until Monday night, but that pause – at least temporarily – knocks them out of the NFC North lead as well as the conference at large due to Minnesota’s win Sunday. But the Lions can still achieve everything they want from the regular season, including home-field advantage and the NFC North title, by beating the Vikes in Week 18. Winning or losing Monday night’s game in Northern California has no impact on Detroit’s outlook. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Vikings
x – 6. Washington Commanders (11-5), wild card No. 3: A thrilling overtime victory launches them into the field … and maybe wins QB Jayden Daniels the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. (The result also clinched the NFC West for the Rams.) Washington’s 8-3 record in NFC games is two better than Green Bay’s. Remaining schedule: at Cowboys
x – 7. Green Bay Packers (11-5), wild card No. 2: Getting swept by Detroit and Minnesota relegated the Pack to wild-card status even before Week 17. Should be notable to see how hard they work to engineer a matchup with the No. 3 seed next week rather than facing a trip to Philadelphia. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7), eliminated: They have a better record than Atlanta but no path to the playoffs. Remaining schedule: at Rams
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8), in the hunt: A gut-wrenching loss to the Commanders means they need to beat Carolina in Week 18 and hope the Bucs lose in order to win the NFC South. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers
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AFC playoff picture
yz – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1), AFC West champions: By crushing Pittsburgh on Christmas, they secured home-field advantage and a first-round bye – and really two-plus weeks off in actuality depending on whom they want to play in what’s now a meaningless Week 18 contest for the champs. Remaining schedule: at Broncos, BYE
y – 2. Buffalo Bills (13-3), AFC East champions: They locked up the No. 2 seed by embarrassing the Jets on Sunday. Finishing second in the conference should still have meaning given the road to Super Bowl 59 could go through Western New York if the Chiefs lose their playoff opener. Buffalo won’t have to go on the road for a playoff game unless the AFC championship is staged in Kansas City. Remaining schedule: at Patriots
x – 3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5), AFC North leaders: Catching fire? Probably an understatement. The Steelers’ loss before Baltimore’s Christmas kickoff vaulted the Ravens atop the division, and their dominant win over Houston keeps them there. A win or tie in Week 18 clinches it. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns
y – 4. Houston Texans (9-7), AFC South champions: They rule a weak division for the second straight year, however Wednesday’s loss locked them into the fourth seed … which will likely mean a tough wild-card matchup, albeit in Houston, against an AFC North team. Remaining schedule: at Titans
x – 5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6), wild card No. 1: That’s three losses in a row, Wednesday’s flat performance against K.C. costing them first place in the AFC North. However they can capture the divisional title by winning in Week 18 if Baltimore also loses to Cleveland. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals
x – 6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6), wild card No. 2: Saturday’s rout of the Patriots locked Bolts into the field and ensures Jim Harbaugh has been a playoff participant in four of his five NFL seasons as a head coach. Yet, having lost to the Ravens and Steelers earlier this season, the Chargers will most likely be the sixth seed – and probably head to Baltimore or Pittsburgh for a rematch. Remaining schedule: at Raiders
7. Denver Broncos (9-7), wild card No. 3: They’ve had win-and-in scenarios in their past two games and lost both times. Still, one more victory – or tie – will advance Denver to the playoffs for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50 with Peyton Manning and Von Miller nearly nine years ago. The Broncos’ Week 18 game against Kansas City means basically nothing to the Chiefs – which could be a real advantage for Denver, which can do no better than the seventh seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8), in the hunt: After handling the Browns on the road – and without injured QB Tua Tagovailoa – they advance if they win in Week 18 and the Broncos lose. Miami’s record in AFC games (6-5) is one better than both Denver and Cincinnati. Remaining schedule: at Jets
9. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), in the hunt: Still alive thanks to a four-game winning streak, including Saturday’s overtime thriller against Denver. Though they appear like the best team outside the postseason field, the Bengals still need the most help to get in, including at least one loss by the Dolphins after the Indianapolis Colts were eliminated Sunday. Cincinnati must also beat Pittsburgh in Week 18 and hope Denver loses again. Though the Bengals jumped Miami on Saturday, the Dolphins hold the tiebreaker (AFC record) that would move them past Cincinnati if they continue winning. Remaining schedule: at Steelers
NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 18 (incomplete)
Detroit clinches NFC North and NFC’s No. 1 seed (first-round bye and home-field advantage) with:
Win
Minnesota clinches NFC North and NFC’s No. 1 seed (first-round bye and home-field advantage) with:
Win
Tampa Bay clinches NFC South with:
1. Win or tie
2. Atlanta loss
Atlanta clinches NFC South with:
Win + Tampa Bay loss
Baltimore clinches AFC North with:
1. Win or tie
2. Pittsburgh loss
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:
Win + Baltimore loss
Denver clinches playoff berth with:
1. Win or tie
2. Cincinnati loss + Miami loss
Miami clinches playoff berth with:
Win + Denver loss
Cincinnati clinches playoff berth with:
Win + Denver loss + Miami loss
NFL teams eliminated from playoff contention in 2024
x – clinched playoff berth
y – clinched division
z – clinched home-field advantage, first-round bye
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