Opinion: Rodgers, Cousins reminders that betting on aging QBs is bad idea

There’s no room for nostalgia in the NFL.

For those general managers and team owners who need it, this season has been a reminder that it’s better to move on too soon than be stuck with a veteran quarterback who is very suddenly, but very clearly, past his prime.

Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst isn’t one for gloating, but his decision to move on from Aaron Rodgers after the 2022 season now looks inspired. A four-time MVP, Rodgers was expected to lead the long-suffering New York Jets to a Super Bowl title. Instead, he’s won all of three games and, on Sunday, the Jets were eliminated from playoff contention for the 14th consecutive year, the longest streak in major sports.

The Minnesota Vikings chose not to throw the boatload of money at Kirk Cousins that the Atlanta Falcons did and that, too, looks prophetic. While Cousins is flailing — no TDs and eight interceptions over the last four games — and the Falcons are on the outside of the playoff race looking in, the Vikings are tied for the third-best record in the NFL. With Sam Darnold as their quarterback, no less.

Joe Flacco doesn’t even resemble the guy who led the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs last year. Andy Dalton was fine — until he wasn’t.

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This isn’t an exact science, of course. Tom Brady defied Father Time and conventional wisdom when he went to Tampa Bay and won a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers. Peyton Manning won one Super Bowl and played in another after the Indianapolis Colts decided not to risk his rebuilt neck.

Even this season, Russell Wilson is thriving in Pittsburgh after a dismal stop in Denver had many assuming he was washed up. (Though the Steelers’ defense and Mike Tomlin being Mike Tomlin are the main reasons Pittsburgh is once again perched atop the AFC North.)

But it’s a general rule of thumb that if you’re betting a QB in the twilight of his career will be able to duplicate his earlier success, your odds are about as good as hitting the jackpot in Las Vegas.

“I’ve started one year, so …,” Rodgers said when asked about the Jets’ postseason futility that is now in its second decade. “I’m a part of it for one year.”

Yes, but the Jets invested a lot in Rodgers under the starry-eyed assumption he’d make all the difference in their fortunes. And Rodgers echoed that wishful thinking, proclaiming himself still able to play at a high level despite being almost 40 when he arrived in New York.

“I’m an old guy so I want to be part of a team that can win it all,” Rodgers said after he was traded to the Jets, “and I believe this is a place where we can get that done.”

Yet all he’s brought to the Jets is chaos and turmoil. Oh, and one 300-yard game, his first in almost three years. Rodgers threw for 339 yards and one TD on Sunday, only for the Jets to lose to the Miami Dolphins in overtime.

It was New York’s fourth consecutive loss, and 10th of the season. Seven of those losses, including the last three, have been by one score.

“We just didn’t figure out how to win enough games,” Rodgers said. “I didn’t play good enough in some crunch times. That’s why we’re sitting here with the record we’ve got.”

Back in the spring of 2023, when it was clear the relationship between Rodgers and the Packers was irretrievably broken — or, specifically, his relationship with Gutekunst — the quarterback griped about Green Bay’s unsentimental approach to personnel decisions.

“They like to get rid of players a year early instead of a year late,” Rodgers said.

As if that’s a bad thing.

It’s human nature to hold on to a good thing for too long, refusing to believe it will ever go bad. Relationships. Clothing styles. Those condiments that have been sitting in your refrigerator for years. But that’s listening to your heart, not your head. And operating that way in the NFL practically guarantees a losing record and a disappointed fan base.

It’s sad to watch the careers of Rodgers, Cousins and so many others end in this fashion. Sadder still is their declines got some help from people whose job it is to know better.

Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Nancy Armour on social media @nrarmour.