College Football Playoff in chaos after conference championship games

You didn’t really think this rabbit hole of a college football season was easing through the tape after all the chaos that unfolded over the previous three months.

If anything, championship weekend made things worse. Or better, depending on your vantage point.

‘Thank you, Jesus,’ Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said after the Tigers’ miraculous ACC championship game victory.

And really, who’s going to argue with that statement after watching what played out?

Of all the improbable on conference championship games, none hit quite like Clemson’s 34-31 victory that sent the Tigers to the College Football Playoff ― and may have knocked out SMU.

Clemson led by 17 in the fourth quarter, and SMU tied the game with a 16-play, 79-yard drive that finished with a touchdown pass from Kevin Jennings to Roderick Daniels Jr. with 16 seconds to play. And that was just enough time for Clemson.

Adam Randall, a third-string kick returner subbing for two injured players, returned the ensuing kickoff 41 yards. Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik then hit Antonio Williams for 17 yards to the SMU 38, to set up a 56-yard field goal attempt ― from a team that had five kicks blocked this season.

And Nolan Hauser, one of three kickers Clemson has used this season, nailed it.

‘SMU,’ Swinney said, ‘They better be in the dang playoff.’

Well, Dabo, that’s the big question. For SMU and a few other teams on the bubble of the 12-team tournament.

Especially after a wild final weekend.

At this point, after more of the unthinkable and unimaginable, after more convoluted and contrived CFP arguments, the only given is No.1 Oregon. And even that’s shaky.

Because after watching Oregon outscore Penn State 45-37 in the Big Ten championship game, it should be clear to all involved that this tournament is wide open. Penn State, which struggled to string together first downs against the Big Ten’s best defenses, rushed for 292 yards and had 518 total yards ― and did whatever it wanted against the Oregon defense.

This, of course, should come as no surprise considering what has played out this season ― all the way to Saturday’s championship games.

SMU paid $200 million to join the ACC, and hadn’t lost a conference game all season. Then Clemson happened, and by the end of the night, Swinney and the ESPN television crew were stumping for SMU. Not that it will matter.

So yeah, crazy didn’t stop with the so-called meaningless championship weekend. It was heightened ― and has left the CFP selection committee with 15 worthy teams for 12 spots. And five worthy conference champions for four first-round byes.

Translation: somebody(s) going to be ticked off when the bracket is revealed Sunday at noon.

The Boogeyman Georgia looked vulnerable all season, and then won the SEC with a backup quarterback. That was Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart after the game, standing on the celebration stage after winning the biggest, baddest conference in college football with a backup who had attempted 35 career passes, complaining about the schedule doled out by the league. Really, he did.

Arizona State was one of the worst Power Five conference teams in 2023 with its last three losses by 52, 36 and 36 points. At one point last year, the Sun Devils lost to Fresno State (at home) 29-0.

That same team – with a transfer portal infusion – lost twice in 2024: by eight at Texas Tech, and by 10 at Cincinnati with backup quarterback Jeff Sims playing for injured starter Sam Leavitt. The same Leavitt who accounted for four touchdowns in the Big 12 championship game.

Boise State won 11 consecutive games, and not only advanced to the playoff with a Mountain West Conference championship, has a slam dunk case for a first-round bye.

Indiana beat one team with a winning record, and is a lock for the CFP because it beat 11 nobodies. And by nobody, I mean Michigan, too.

If that doesn’t underscore how truly disgusting Ohio State’s fourth consecutive loss to Michigan was, I don’t know what will.

Army, like Indiana, won 11 games. The Black Knights also won the American Athletic championship, and with a win over Navy next week, will win 12 games. If wins against overmatched opponents gets you in the CFP, come on down, Army!

Clemson lost the first game of the regular season (Georgia) and the last (South Carolina), its two most difficult games of the year. Then won the ACC. Again.

Miami won nine in a row to begin the season, then lost two of three to finish ― both as a double-digit favorite ― and has been reduced to arguing that Alabama isn’t worthy because it lost three games.

And speaking of Alabama, let’s reintroduce some sanity to this season of chaos. After losing two games to teams that finished 6-6 (including a 21-point loss at Oklahoma), and finishing the season with a win over Mercer and hapless Auburn, the Tide finds itself in a familiar position.

The BCS/CFP chosen one.

Never has one program been so rewarded for so many galling losses at critical moments of the season. Why break precedent now?

Alabama’s CFP argument is rather simple, really: common opponents. Alabama beat both Georgia and South Carolina, and Georgia and South Carolina beat Clemson.

Clemson, of course, beat SMU.

And that whole argument that teams playing in conference championship games shouldn’t be penalized for losing? Georgia was 12-0 and lost by three points to Alabama in last year’s SEC championship game.

And fell from the No. 1 seed to out of the CFP.

Welcome to chaos, CFP selection committee. Now go find 12 worthy teams.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.