What to watch this weekend. Ranking the conference championship games
Obviously , not all of the nine league finals will have bearing on the playoff participants and seeding, but all the contests will be meaningful with titles on the line. We’ll therefore present them in order of importance, but all could be worth a look. As usual, there will be activity at multiple venues happening simultaneously, so even with the limited number of games the weekly advice to keep the remote within easy reach still applies.
Let’s get to the matchups.
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State
Time/TV: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, CBS.
Why watch: This Big Ten title clash will likely be for the top overall seed, although the SEC might also have something to say about that. The Ducks have known they’d be traveling to Indianapolis for several weeks but handled their business nonetheless to remain the last undefeated team in the Bowl Subdivision. The Nittany Lions’ presence here is a bit of a surprise, but they’ll now look to take full advantage of the opportunity afforded them by Ohio State’s stumble against Michigan and earn a coveted first-round playoff bye. Ducks QB Dillon Gabriel will probably receive Heisman consideration based on the team’s sparkling record, but having weapons like RB Jordan James and WR Tez Johnson certainly helps. They might have their hands full against the stingy Penn State defense, featuring dangerous DL Abdul Carter and hard-hitting DB Jaylen Reed. But the game’s biggest question concerns the Nittany Lions’ offense that struggled against the one elite secondary it faced. QB Drew Allar makes good use of ball-control weapons like TE Tyler Warren and RB Kaytron Allen, but Oregon LB Bryce Boettcher and DB Tysheem Johnson make most of their tackles stick.
Why it could disappoint: If you were hoping for a repeat of the instant classic the Ducks staged with Ohio State back in October, this one might not meet expectations. The Nittany Lions managed to overcome a couple of slow starts during the year, but they’d be advised not to attempt that formula here with Oregon’s offensive capability.
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No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia
Time/TV: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ABC.
Why watch: As is also the case in the Big Ten, both participants in the SEC title game in Atlanta are all but assured of inclusion in the 12-team playoff field. But there’s still a lot on the line at Mercedes-Benz Stadium with the winner able to rest up until the quarterfinal round. The Longhorns would also like to avenge their only setback of the regular season, while the Bulldogs look to regain their championship form after needing eight overtimes to survive Georgia Tech last week. Georgia QB Carson Beck has been much less pick prone in recent outings, but the Bulldogs’ offense is still not up to the program’s admittedly high standards, thanks mainly to a lot of dropped passes and lack of consistency on the ground. Do-everything LB Anthony Hill Jr. and the Texas defense hope to keep the Bulldogs in neutral. Neither Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers nor backup Arch Manning had much success against LB Jalon Walker and Georgia’s defensive front in Austin, so they’ll likely attempt to get RBs Quintrevion Wisner and Jayden Blue more involved early.
Why it could disappoint: The first encounter wasn’t exactly scintillating, and neither team has generated much in the downfield game against SEC-caliber coverage units. Don’t expect fireworks, but hope for fourth-quarter drama.
No. 7 SMU vs. No. 17 Clemson
Time/TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC.
Why watch: The final day of the regular season took Clemson on an emotional roller coaster, losing a nail-biter to archrival South Carolina but then watching Miami fall at Syracuse to provide the opportunity to play in the ACC title game in nearby Charlotte, N.C. None of this matters to the Mustangs, of course, who look to complete a tremendous first ride through the conference and eliminate any ambiguity from their playoff situation. SMU QB Kevin Jennings might take some encouragement from the success South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers had running the ball against the Tigers, though LB Barrett Carter and the Clemson defense still nearly did enough to escape. Jennings might be better served letting RB Brashard Smith do the heavy lifting in the ground game. The Tigers, meanwhile, continue to lack big-play capability against accomplished defenses, though QB Cade Klubnik has helped with some well-timed keepers. Mustangs LB Kobe Wilson and DB Isaiah Nwokobia will be on the lookout for such plays, particularly in red-zone situations.
Why it could disappoint: Again, there might not be a lot of flashy moments. There will be no lack of intensity, however, even with little familiarity between these new league opponents.
No. 19 UNLV at No. 10 Boise State
Time/TV: Friday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox.
Why watch: The Mountain West finale is also a rematch, with the Broncos taking the first encounter 29-24 back on Oct. 25 in Las Vegas. The Rebels will try to return the favor on Boise’s blue turf with a likely playoff bid – and maybe even a first-round bye – on the line. That could be a tall order, however, as the Broncos will also be trying to help RB Ashton Jeanty make a closing statement to Heisman voters. He enters the contest with 2,288 rushing yards and 28 TDs with an additional receiving score, but the Rebels contained him as well as anyone in their earlier encounter with a swarming defense, led by LB Jackson Woodard and DB Jalen Catalon. Boise State QB Maddux Madsen provides solid aerial cover, however, with 21 scoring throws to just three INTs. The UNLV offense is directed by dual-threat QB Hajj-Malik Williams, who has game-breaking WR Ricky White III and dependable RB Jai’Den Thomas in his arsenal. The Broncos’ defense is led by DLs Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Ahmed Hassanein up front and backstopped by DB Ty Benefield.
Why it could disappoint: It shouldn’t. This was a competitive affair the first time around, and both teams would have a strong playoff case with a win, so the level of execution should be high. It’s conceivable one team could get buried under a slew of mistakes, but that would be a surprise.
No. 13 Arizona State vs. No. 16 Iowa State
Time/TV: Saturday, noon ET, ABC.
Why watch: The participants in the Big 12 title showdown in Arlington, Texas, weren’t finalized until all the results were in. But in the end the four-way tiebreaker went in favor of the Sun Devils and Cyclones, neither of whom were expected to be in the mix before this season in the new-look conference. Now the winner will be off to the playoff, though whether that will mean a bye to the quarterfinals remains to be seen. Arizona State freshman QB Sam Leavitt has done a sensational job in his debut season, making excellent use of all-purpose RB Cam Skattebo. Unfortunately, standout WR Jordyn Tyson is out for the rest of the season after an injury last week against Arizona. Cyclones QB Rocco Becht came in with a year of more experience than Leavitt under his belt but has been just as impressive. WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are the big-play targets, but powerful RB Carson Hansen is just as important for sustaining drives. Names to know on the defensive side include Arizona State LB Caleb McCullough and Iowa State DB Malik Verdon.
Why it could disappoint: It would be a major stunner if it does. Iowa State in particular tends to have its games come down to the wire. The Sun Devils have had their share of dramatics as well, so this should be yet another wild ride, encapsulating the Big 12 season in microcosm.
Tulane at No. 23 Army
Time/TV: Friday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC.
Why watch: This was the first conference championship pairing to be determined, though its location wasn’t decided until last week. Tulane’s home loss to Memphis on Thanksgiving night cost the Green Wave hosting privileges, and the Black Knights were happy to secure another home game by handling Texas-San Antonio to close out a hugely successful debut campaign in the American Athletic. Despite last week’s setback, the Green Wave handled a similar challenge at Navy a couple of weeks ago with relative ease in a 35-0 romp. This time the focus for LB Tyler Grubbs and the Tulane run stoppers will be Army QB Bryson Daily, who has 25 TDs by land and eight more through the air. When he does give up the ball, it’s usually to RB Kanye Udoh or SB Noah Short. For their part, the Green Wave backfield tandem of QB Darian Mensah and RB Makhi Hughes hope to prevent the uncharacteristic miscues that derailed their home finale. LB Andon Thomas is the centerpiece of the Army defense that will look to keep them in check.
Why it could disappoint: Quite simply, Army can’t get down by multiple scores early. Things could certainly go the other way if the Black Knights’ ball-control game is successful, but Tulane has more quick-strike capability if a comeback is needed.
Marshall at Louisiana-Lafayette
Time/TV: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Why watch: The host Ragin’ Cajuns are seeking their third Sun Belt crown in five seasons, having won back-to-back titles in 2020 and 2021. The Thundering Herd are in the SBC final for the first time and waited until the last possible minute to secure their spot, prevailing at James Madison 35-33 in double overtime last week to clinch the East Division. The offense in Lafayette this year is more balanced than in past seasons, with Cajuns QB Ben Wooldridge providing a reliable aerial attack to complement the RB platoon of Bill Davis and Zylan Perry. The bulk of Marshall’s offensive production comes courtesy of QB Braylon Braxton and RB A.J. Turner.
Why it could disappoint: It’s possible the Cajuns are better, winning the stronger division and enjoying home-field advantage. As hard as the Herd had to work to get here, though, don’t expect anything resembling rapid capitulation.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Ohio
Time/TV: Saturday, noon ET, ESPN.
Why watch: The MAC final in Detroit also reunites familiar foes. Miami handed the Bobcats their lone league loss by a 30-20 score back on Oct. 19 on the RedHawks’ home field in Oxford. But Ohio has been on a roll since, winning its last five conference games by at least 17 points. Miami had dropped its MAC opener at Toledo but has won seven in a row since. At the controls for the RedHawks is QB Brett Gabbert, who has big-play threats in WRs Reggie Virgil and Javon Tracy while also getting ample ground support from RB Keyon Mozee. Bobcats QB Parker Navarro and RB Anthony Tyus prefer to keep the attack grounded, but WR Coleman Owen does provide a downfield threat when needed.
Why it could disappoint: Both these teams have been known to give the ball away from time to time, so there’s a chance one or the other could build a cushion. These teams know each other well, though, so it should remain close throughout.
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State
Time/TV: Friday, 7 p.m. ET, CBSSN.
Why watch: Championship weekend kicks off with this Conference USA rematch of a game that occurred just six days earlier. Western Kentucky handed Jax State its lone league loss in a tight 19-17 contest that came down to a last-minute field goal. The Gamecocks had already secured home-field advantage for the title game but nearly held on anyway despite starting QB Tyler Huff exiting the game in the second half with an apparent ankle injury. Huff and RB Tre Stewart have combined for more than 2,500 rushing yards and 33 TDs, but it might be up to backup QB Logan Smothers to keep the offense moving if Huff isn’t available. Hilltoppers QB Caden Veltkamp prefers to move the ball by air, but he does have seven rushing TDs of his own. RB Elijah Young and WR Kisean Johnson are his primary weapons.
Why it could disappoint: Last week’s meeting indicates it should be another tight affair, but it might depend on the health of key players. Early momentum might favor the Gamecocks this time with the rematch on their home turf, but the Hilltoppers aren’t likely to be overwhelmed.