How will the playoff shake out? Five likely scenarios this weekend

The College Football Playoff can do this the hard way or the easy way.

The selection committee is hoping for a paint-by-numbers Sunday that sees no changes from the penultimate rankings and, most critically, avoids any major outrage over the debut 12-team bracket.

Speaking to the media on Tuesday night, committee chairman Warde Manuel implied teams already in the clubhouse —such as Ohio State, Tennessee and Indiana — won’t be rearranged after conference championship weekend, though SMU could move up the rankings by beating Clemson to win the ACC.

But chaos is always lurking around the corner. While there are only so many scenarios that could unfold, the potential for a predictable bracket would be upended by one or more upsets on Friday and Saturday.

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Here are five scenarios still on the table leading into the final rankings and playoff matchups:

Scenario No. 1: No upsets, no debates

The committee is given the gift of an all-chalk weekend that includes wins by Oregon, Texas, SMU, Arizona State and Boise State. In this case, the committee can cut and paste the names from Tuesday night’s projected bracket and be done in time for an early brunch on Sunday morning.

One notable change is Arizona State rising to No. 11 after beating Iowa State, bumping Alabama down to No. 12. Penn State’s loss drops the Nittany Lions one spot and swaps in Notre Dame as the No. 5 seed. Georgia stays at No. 7 despite losing to Texas since the Bulldogs convincingly won the regular-season matchup in Austin.

Overall, though, this is the same 12-team field as in the penultimate rankings.

Scenario No. 2: UNLV knocks off Boise State

UNLV would then become the Group of Five representative. The fallout from this upset would be seen in seeding, specifically in the four conference champions to receive an opening-round bye.

With the Broncos out, the Big 12 champion moves into the top four – we’ll say Arizona State for this example, though the same would apply if Iowa State wins on Saturday.

Scenario No. 3: Clemson beats SMU

This is the doomsday scenario for the committee, since a Clemson win would force a decision between two-loss SMU and three-loss Alabama. At this point, this is the only scenario that could keep the Crimson Tide out of the playoff.

The Mustangs argument rests on just two losses, both to ranked teams; a nine-game winning streak featuring six wins against bowl teams; only two Power Four wins decided by single digits; and being one of two Power Four teams, along with Oregon, to go unbeaten in conference play.

Alabama’s case rests on beating Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri and LSU. Being Alabama also helps.

While impossible to predict with any certainty, here’s guessing the 12-team committee continues a tradition set during the four-team era and gives the Crimson Tide the benefit of the doubt.

Scenario No. 4: Wins by Penn State and Georgia

This would shake up the playoff’s seating chart with a trickledown impact on which teams earn a home game in the opening round.

The Nittany Lions would vault to the No. 1 overall seed. There would be a debate between SMU and Georgia for the No. 2 seed; we’ll give that edge to Georgia based on the Bulldogs’ wins and overall strength of schedule.

Oregon would land at No. 5 and Texas at No. 6, bumping Notre Dame into an in-state matchup with No. 10 Indiana. Ohio State would continue to host Tennessee.

Scenario No. 5: Higher-ranked seeds go down

OK, let’s imagine that Penn State beats Oregon, Georgia beats Texas, Clemson beats SMU and UNLV tops Boise State. That would result in a top four of the Nittany Lions, Bulldogs, Tigers and Rebels.

The Ducks, Longhorns, Irish and Buckeyes would host the opening round. Oregon would play Alabama, Texas would face Arizona State and the Irish and Buckeyes would continue to match with the Hoosiers and Volunteers, respectively.