Playoff bracket prediction: Alabama, Arizona State rise, Ohio State falls
At least 18 teams remain in playoff contention, but who’s getting the last spot? Never discount brand bias. That helps Alabama.
South Carolina is the hottest bubble team, but Gamecocks lost to Alabama and Ole Miss.
Expect a hot debate on whether Ohio State or Tennessee deserves final spot to host first-round game.
An Ohio State loss and a few shots of pepper spray later, and we’re a little bleary-eyed as we try to figure out how the College Football Playoff committee will handle a messy glob of teams vying for the final spot in the bracket.
By my count, 18 teams remain in playoff contention entering conference championship weekend.
Playoff possibilities include a team that lost to Kentucky (Mississippi), a team that got blown out by six-win Oklahoma (Alabama), and a three-loss bid stealer from the ACC (Clemson).
Let’s get to my latest playoff bracket projection.
Reminder: This is not a projection of what I think Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings will look like. Rather, this projects what I think the playoff bracket will look like come Selection Sunday on Dec. 8.
Also, remember: Top-four seeds would receive a first-round bye, while teams seeded Nos. 5 through 8 would host first-round playoff games. To earn a top-four seed, a team must win its conference championship.
1. Oregon (Big Ten)
The Ducks passed every test and stand as the only remaining undefeated team. The cost for losing the Big Ten championship would be significant, shoving Oregon into the No. 5 seed, which could push it into a game against an SEC team like Alabama or South Carolina. Holding off Penn State will be no layup, but the Ducks show all the markers of a team up to the task. Last week’s projection: No. 5.
BOWL PROJECTIONS: Alabama back into the playoff as Texas, SMU rise
RE-RANK: Texas moves up, Ohio State tumbles in NCAA 1-134 ranking
2. Texas (SEC)
The Longhorns earned the rematch against Georgia that they craved since imploding in the first half of an October loss to the Bulldogs. Georgia played to a peak that night it hasn’t often replicated. If both teams bring their best, Georgia might be a rung better, but Texas displays more consistency, and surely it won’t repeat its four turnovers from the first meeting, right? Last week’s projection: No. 8.
3. SMU (ACC)
The Mustangs have played like the ACC’s best team for several weeks now, and the committee refused to acknowledge it, but there will be no denying SMU the bracket’s No. 3 seed if it earns a 10th consecutive victory by beating Clemson. Rhett Lashlee’s quarterback switcheroo to insert Kevin Jennings galvanized SMU and remains one of the season’s best coaching decisions. Last week’s projection: No. 3
4. Arizona State (Big 12)
Boise State enjoyed a rankings lead on the Sun Devils last week, but Arizona State’s blowout win over rival Arizona should close the gap. Then, if the Sun Devils beat Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game, the committee can accept that as permission to award the Big 12 the final bye and snub the Broncos. Defeating the Cyclones would give Arizona State two ranked wins in its final three games. Last week’s projection: Not projected into bracket.
5. Notre Dame (at-large)
Expect Penn State to be ranked ahead of the Irish on Tuesday. If Oregon beats Penn State in the Big Ten championship, though, the committee must decide whether – and how much – to penalize the Nittany Lions for putting it on the line against the No. 1 team while Notre Dame sat at home. The committee has consistently valued Penn State ahead of Notre Dame, but a loss to Oregon would be fresh in the brain. Last week’s projection: No. 7.
6. Penn State (at-large)
If Penn State beats Oregon to snatch the No. 1 or No. 2 seed, then Ohio State’s loss to Michigan will have been worth it to the Nittany Lions. If Oregon wins, then Penn State will have endured a tough game and gained little to no value to its seeding. Penn State last won the Big Ten in 2016, so, viewed through that lens, consider this a valued opportunity. It also will tell us more about whether Penn State should be viewed as a national title contender or pretender. Last week’s projection: No. 6.
7. Georgia (at-large)
Beating Texas for a second time projects as no easy task, but thanks to Georgia’s escape against Georgia Tech in eight overtimes, the Bulldogs will enter this SEC championship game facing less pressure. Georgia’s head-to-head wins against Texas and Tennessee, two teams that will be in the bracket, help provide seed protection even if it loses in Atlanta. Last week’s projection: No. 2.
8. Ohio State (at-large)
The Buckeyes faceplanted in their final stroll down the catwalk, suffering a familiar result against Michigan. This will test whether the committee becomes victim to the moment. Throughout 11 games, OSU looked the part of national championship contender. It owns wins against two teams in this bracket, Penn State and Indiana, and a one-point loss to Oregon. Seeding based on full résumé could be enough to preserve a first-round home game, but the Buckeyes put their fate in the committee’s hands. Last week’s projection: No. 1.
9. Tennessee (at-large)
The Vols handled their business against Vanderbilt and put themselves in the conversation for a first-round home game. Seeding could be crucial for Tennessee, which plays substantially better at Neyland Stadium. So, Ohio State or Tennessee? Both teams boast top defenses. OSU’s overall résumé is better, but can the committee forget what it saw from the Buckeyes against Michigan? That’s the question. Last week’s projection: No. 9.
10. Indiana (at-large)
Miami and Clemson losing, while Indiana ripped out Purdue’s soul, ended debate about whether the Hoosiers will earn an at-large bid. We’re talking about 9-3 teams with bad losses being in contention, so, yes, Indiana is in, and the playoff’s first round will reveal whether that performance against Ohio State was a harbinger of fraud status or an aberration masking a good team. Last week’s projection: No. 11.
11. Boise State (Group of Five)
The Broncos aren’t your average Group of Five team. They possess one of the two front-runners for the Heisman Trophy. Their only loss came by three points, on the road, to Oregon. But, awarding Boise State the final first-round bye over a two-loss Big 12 champion would take some spine from a committee that’s consistently hesitated to put respect on Boise’s name. Last week’s projection: No. 4.
12. Alabama (at-large)
Look, the final team selected will have a smudged résumé. That’s a fact. How to choose? I’m thinking Alabama’s strength of schedule and head-to-head result with South Carolina tips the scales, with some brand bias giving the final nudge. Last week’s projection: Not projected in the bracket.
Dropping out of last week’s bracket projection
∎ Miami
The case for South Carolina
No bad losses, and, as winners of six in a row, the Gamecocks are the hottest team vying for the final spot. Clemson winning the ACC championship would polish South Carolina’s bid, but a bid for the Gamecocks would require the committee to ignore head-to-head losses to Alabama and Ole Miss.
The case for Miami
If the final spot becomes a loss-counting exercise, then Miami gets the bid, and sorry about your luck, SEC. But, by that logic, why reward Miami instead of two-loss Brigham Young, which has a better top victory (SMU) and stronger strength of schedule? The case for Miami plays weak in that light.
The case for Ole Miss
The Rebels’ three losses came by a total margin of 13 points. They own a dominant victory against the team that might win the SEC championship (Georgia), plus a blowout road win against a team under consideration (South Carolina). If only Ole Miss hadn’t lost at home to Kentucky, the Rebels would be a slam dunk, but they did lose to Kentucky.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. The ‘Topp Rope’ is his football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network. Subscribe to read all of his columns.