To live up to his own expectations, Kalen DeBoer and Alabama must beat LSU.
Alabama and LSU remain College Football Playoff contenders, but only one will remain so on Nov. 10.
CFP will strongly consider strength of schedule, but where’s the transparency?
No, I didn’t predict he’d lose to Vanderbilt. Only folks with an anchor tattooed to their chest might have figured that. And I also didn’t think Alabama would blitz Georgia.
Here’s what I did expect, though: Alabama would need to beat either Tennessee or LSU to make the playoff in DeBoer’s first season.
The Crimson Tide lost to Tennessee, so their season rides on beating LSU on Nov. 9.
I’ll state it cleanly: If Alabama makes the College Football Playoff in DeBoer’s first season, he’s been a Year 1 success. Yes, he lost to Vanderbilt, but if he makes the playoff, so what? Nick Saban lost to Louisiana-Monroe in his first season, and that worked out OK in the long run. Pile up enough victories, and a black eye fades.
If Alabama loses to LSU (or a subsequent game) and misses the playoff, then DeBoer’s first season becomes a bust.
Don’t just take it from me. Let me remind you what DeBoer said before the season when I asked him whether he considered making the CFP in his first season a reasonable expectation.
‘That’s the expectation,’ DeBoer told me in June.
So, playoff or bust. That’s the standard, straight from the coach’s mouth.
After Alabama lost to Tennessee, I grabbed the shovel and prepared to start scooping dirt on the idea of the Tide as a playoff team. It wasn’t just that the Vols beat the Tide 24-17. It’s how they lost.
All slop, no sizzle.
Quarterback Jalen Milroe, a Heisman contender after September, regressed into a slump. Alabama played as undisciplined as ever and became a walking, talking penalty.
Jim Mora voice …
Playoffs?! Don’t talk about playoffs. You kidding me? Playoffs?!
Now, though, after Alabama trounced Missouri in what could become a get-right game, I’ve put down the shovel, but I’m keeping it close at hand. It will be needed Nov. 9, after Alabama plays LSU.
Two playoff contenders will step into Tiger Stadium. Only one will emerge with playoff hopes intact.
Alabama and LSU are open this week, giving the teams two weeks to prepare for their rival. Each team is capable of exploiting the other’s weakness.
LSU looked inept at defending the read-option in last weekend’s loss at Texas A&M, so much so that coach Brian Kelly suggested that future opponents would be foolish not to run the quarterback against LSU.
That’s a dream for Alabama. Milroe’s legs are an asset.
Alabama’s defense gets squishy, too, and it doesn’t consistently pressure the passer. When LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier gets time to let it rip, he’s as good as any SEC quarterback.
Neither Alabama nor LSU would be assured an at-large playoff bid with a 10-2 record, but either will tout a strong strength of schedule that would become difficult for the CFP committee to ignore. Schedule strength will be a core selection criterion.
‘Record matters,’ CFP executive director Rich Clark said, ‘but we’re not trying to pick the most deserving teams. We’re trying to pick the best teams. This committee has got to look at (a team’s) entire body of work.’
Alabama’s subsequent games come against Oklahoma, Mercer and Auburn to form about as enviable of a closing draw as it could hope for, but that’ll be moot if the Tide loses to LSU.
Even with a loss to Vanderbilt, a 10-win Alabama with victories against Georgia, LSU and Missouri would tout a healthy body of work.
So, while one SEC power will be buried Nov. 9, the other will resurrect its playoff bid.
Here’s what else I’m eyeing in this view from the ‘Topp Rope’:
CFP process needs more transparency
Clark, the CFP executive director, mentioned these factors as criteria the selection committee will consider when ranking teams: Win-loss record, strength of schedule, head-to-head outcomes, performance against common opponents and the subjective eye test.
That all sounds reasonable enough, but the committee’s persistent lack of transparency remains an issue.
For example, the selection committee will use strength of schedule ratings compiled by SportSource Analytics. That SportSource strength of schedule data won’t be available to the public.
“That strength of schedule metric is really sophisticated,” Clark said. “It not only looks at what your opponents’ records are, but it looks at what your opponents’ opponents records are, so that it can come up with a way to evaluate the actual strength of schedule.”
We’ll have to take his word for it, because we won’t see the data or what goes into compiling it.
Emails of the week
DJ writes: Disclosure: I’m a Notre Dame fan. I enjoyed your article on Texas A&M immensely. I feel you better described the situation in College Station better than anyone. It was so well-written.
My response: What flattery. Notre Dame fans have become the Aggies’ biggest ally. A win for Texas A&M is a win for Notre Dame, considering the Irish’s Week 1 victory in College Station.
Mike writes: Is there any other profession on earth (other than coaching) where you are wildly financially rewarded for failing?
My response: Elected official comes to mind. A U.S. Senator can spend six years achieving very little in office, then get re-elected to another term, and the salary is not half bad. Then comes the book deal.
Three and out
1. We appear to be headed toward a logjam of one- and two-loss teams seeking an at-large playoff bid. With that in mind, Ohio State could find itself on the wrong side of the bubble if it suffers its second loss Saturday against Penn State. Road games at Oregon and Penn State were a tough draw for the Buckeyes, but if they lose to both, there’s not much on the résumé to prop them up. Their best win came against Iowa. While it’s hard to envision a team as talented as OSU not making the playoff, a 10-2 record would put it in a vulnerable spot.
2. Two weeks ago, I omitted Notre Dame from my list of national championship contenders. I cannot unsee its loss to Northern Illinois. However, Irish quarterback Riley Leonard is playing much better, the defense is dependable, and that Week 1 win at Texas A&M looks better and better. The Irish are clearly a playoff contender, and I’ve nearly seen enough to elevate them to national title contender.
3. Texas A&M came within a mosquito’s whisker of hiring Kentucky’s Mark Stoops to replace Jimbo Fisher. Word leaked. Fans balked and shot down the trial balloon. So many holes riddled that trial balloon it never again would take flight. So, Stoops, whether by his choice or the Aggies’ decision, depending on who tells the story, stayed at Kentucky. Texas A&M hired Mike Elko. Fast forward 11 months, and Stoops looks past his peak, while Elko positioned the Aggies atop the SEC standings. God bless fan revolts, eh?
The ‘Topp Rope’ is his football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network.
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