Republicans top Dems on key factor motivating voter turnout for Biden-Trump rematch: poll

A new national poll indicates that Republicans are more enthusiastic about former President Trump returning to the White House than Democrats are about President Biden serving another four years in office.

But Trump stirs more anger and fear from Democrats than Biden does from Republicans, according to the findings in an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey.

Fifty-four percent of Republicans questioned in the poll said ‘excited’ describes how they would feel about a second Trump term as president. Only four in 10 Democrats said the same thing about a Biden victory in November’s presidential election rematch between the White House incumbent and his predecessor.

The poll also indicates that seven in 10 Democrats used the words ‘angry’ or ‘fearful’ to describe how they would feel if Trump won the presidential election.

Fifty-six percent of Republicans said the same thing about Biden if he were to defeat Trump for a second straight time.

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In a race that polls indicate will be extremely close, both excitement and dislike of the two major candidates will likely be crucial motivating factors in firing up the Democratic and Republican bases.

The poll was conducted March 21-25, with 1,282 adults nationwide questioned using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

With just over seven months to go until Election Day on Nov. 5, Trump enjoys the early edge in public opinion polling – both in most national surveys and in many of the polls in five of the six key battleground states where Biden narrowly topped Trump to win the White House in 2020.

But in another key metric – fundraising – Biden currently enjoys the upper hand.

The Biden-Trump rematch offers up stark contrasts when it comes to their style and demeanor, and on where they stand on key issues, such as the economy, health care and entitlements, immigration, abortion, foreign policy, the war in Ukraine, and America’s overseas role going forward.

The 81-year-old Biden, who four years ago made history as the oldest American ever elected president, will continue to face questions about his mental and physical durability, even his recent vigorous State of the Union address.

The president also needs to show that he can energize younger voters, progressives, and Black and Latino Americans, who are all key parts of the Democratic base. Biden is also facing primary ballot box protests – materializing in ‘uncommitted’ votes – over his support for Israel in its war in Gaza against Hamas.

The former president is also dealing with plenty of problems. 

Trump, who last year made history as the first president or former president to face criminal charges, now faces four major trials and a total of 91 indictments – including federal cases on his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and on handling classified documents. There’s also a massive civil fraud judgment that Trump is appealing. He will have to juggle his appearances in court with his time on the campaign trail. 

The 77-year-old Trump will also need to court the sizable block of Republican voters who backed Nikki Haley in the GOP nomination race. The former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor was Trump’s last remaining rival before she ended her White House campaign earlier this month. Haley’s support is shining a spotlight on Trump’s weakness with suburban and highly educated voters.

Complicating matters further – the presidential rematch between Biden and Trump won’t be a two-candidate race.

Democratic-turned-Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is working to place his name on state ballots across the country. Kennedy, a longtime environmental activist and high-profile vaccine skeptic who’s a scion of the famous Kennedy political dynasty, is grabbing double-digits in many general election polls.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein and progressive independent candidate Cornell West are polling in the single digits. And the centrist group No Labels is moving ahead with plans to potentially launch a third-party ‘unity’ presidential ticket.

While third-party and independent candidates didn’t play much of a role in the 2020 presidential election, they did in the 2016 showdown between Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. And they may again in 2024.