Ranking NFL playoff teams by Super Bowl viability: Who can win it all?

The 2023 NFL regular season is a wrap. It took all 272 games to fully seed the playoff field while relegating 18 squads to tee times, some change-of-address notifications and – in all those cases – a head start on 2024 draft prep.

But for the 14 squads still standing, the Lombardi Trophy is still a viable goal – now just four (or three, in select cases) wins away. Which teams have the most realistic shot at winning Super Bowl 58 on Feb. 11 in Las Vegas? Which ones should just be happy they’ve advanced as far as they have?

Here’s how we rank their viability, from least dangerous to most, as championship contenders:

14. Miami Dolphins

Yes, they have Tyreek Hill, the most feared receiver in the league. Yes, it seems they’ll have RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle, gamebreakers in their own rights, back from injuries on Saturday. But … (so many buts). Do you trust a South Florida team, one that dropped three of its final five regular-season contests, to knock off the reigning Super Bowl-champion Chiefs on the road in what are expected to be single-digit temperatures? Or the fact that Miami’s defense has been stripped of most of its top players? What about the Dolphins’ 1-5 record against winning teams this season? And even if they prevail at Arrowhead – and an upset would mark Miami’s first postseason win in 23 years – that almost certainly means a return trip to Baltimore, where the Fins lost 56-19 in Week 17. Stop believin’, South Beach.

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13. Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes, the offense is better, QB Mason Rudolph’s willingness to take downfield shots not only creating explosive plays but also the room the run game needs to operate efficiently – and RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have certainly taken advantage. But can the Steelers really be expected to continue scoring 27 points per game – their three-game rate with Rudolph – in the playoff crucible? Even more worrisome, a defense devoid of All-Pro OLB T.J. Watt (knee). Since he entered the NFL in 2017, Pittsburgh surrenders 26.3 points per game when Watt is out – compared to 19.8 when he plays, effectively making him worth a full a touchdown. Given the amount of yards the Steelers concede anyway after ranking 21st in total defense, this looms as a bad combination against Buffalo QB Josh Allen or whomever else Pittsburgh might draw this month. Also, as consistently above average as the Steelers have been – no postseason wins in seven years.

12. Philadelphia Eagles

Eleventh months ago, they held a fourth-quarter lead in Super Bowl 57. Six weeks ago, they were 10-1 and seemed to be – if not cruising – heading toward a second straight No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff field. How quickly things can change. The Birds have lost five of six, including defeats the past two weeks to the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants that effectively prevented Philadelphia from retaining the NFC East crown. WR A.J. Brown, arguably the team’s second-most important player, left Sunday’s game with a knee injury – and wingman DeVonta Smith was sidelined by an ankle issue. And the so-called defense has surrendered nearly 31 points and more than 400 yards, on average, over the last seven weeks. Not much to love here besides Philly grit and the realization they don’t have much else to lose at this point. (Also, if they win but the NFC’s seeding holds? Then they’d be headed to San Francisco, so …)

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

They closed with five wins over the final six weeks to win their third straight NFC South flag – not that that’s been a very impressive accomplishment over the last two years, the Bucs a collective 17-17 during that regular-season stretch. But QB Baker Mayfield – he nearly led the Browns to the 2020 AFC championship game – has had perhaps his best season, generally playing efficient football while distributing the rock to playmakers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White. If a bend-but-don’t-break defense can generate a few positive shifts, it would hardly be a surprise if the Bucs made it to the divisional round and caused some problems there. (Also, if they win but the NFC’s seeding holds? Then they’d be headed to San Francisco, so …)

10. Houston Texans

It’s easy to point to their relative inexperience, from the coaching staff to the roster, specifically rookie QB C.J. Stroud. But when you’ve parlayed house money into a stunning AFC South crown, who cares? And since coming back from his concussion, Stroud, who missed Houston’s 36-22 loss to Cleveland in Week 16, has been awfully efficient (75.9% completion rate, 116.8 passer rating, 3 TD passes) and also turnover-free while marching the Texans into the playoffs for the first time in four years. RB Devin Singletary has brought an added dimension to the offense since become the starter in November. The defense has been more prone to the ups and downs of unrefined potential, but talented youngsters Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley have also come on strongly in the second half.

9. Cleveland Browns

They’re probably the league’s coolest story right now, winning four of five since QB Joe Flacco left his semi-forced retirement to nearly lead the Dawg Pound to its first division title in more than three decades. The Browns also sport the NFL’s top-ranked defense and, arguably, its best individual defender in DE Myles Garrett. But there’s a significant risk-reward approach they’ve embraced here that hardly seems sustainable enough to produce four more victories. The offense has become almost totally unbalanced with Flacco, Cleveland cracking 100 rushing yards just twice in the past six weeks. And the Browns’ league-high 37 turnovers explain why they’ve only held six opponents to fewer than 20 points – and just one in the last seven games – despite their defensive exploits.

8. Detroit Lions

You want to feel a bit better about their chances. But, as NFC North champions, they’re about to host their first-ever playoff game at Ford Field – and that probably engenders a bit of hometown pressure. They’re about to face a Rams squad not two years removed from a Super Bowl victory and still led by many capable veterans who spearheaded that title run. Sublime rookie TE Sam LaPorta probably won’t be available after injuring his knee Sunday. And QB Jared Goff has been on a roller coaster during the season’s second half. Make no mistake, the Lions are physical, on both sides of the ball and especially in the trenches, talented and always seem ready to play. But reeling off four in a row when they haven’t won a playoff game in 32 years seems like a massive ask.

7. Green Bay Packers

They boast – if the that’s the right term – the NFL’s youngest roster, but the Pack grew up quickly enough to return to postseason in Year 1 AR (after Rodgers). This team is not only green but inconsistent – functions of its youth movement but attributes that enable Green Bay to beat the strongest opponents … or succumb to the weakest. Yet rejuvenated RB Aaron Jones has eclipsed 100 rushing yards each of the past three weeks, while an oft-suspect defense seems to be stabilizing. And let’s talk about QB Jordan Love, who did something neither Brett Favre nor Aaron Rodgers could by leading the Packers to postseason in his first season as the starter. Love has been exceptional in the second half of the season, while his 32 TD passes ranked second league-wide. And if X-factor WR Christian Watson can get back from his hamstring injury? Green Bay, the last team to qualify for the postseason field, isn’t saddled with outsized expectations for a change … and, consequently, a very dangerous opponent.

6. Dallas Cowboys

One of the league’s most Jekyll-and-Hyde outfits, winning the NFC East and securing the conference’s No. 2 seed means “America’s Team” could be playing the next two weekends at AT&T Stadium, where the Cowboys have won 16 in a row. They’ve also averaged 37.4 points and 425.8 yards at home, significantly higher figures than what Dallas manages on the road. Which isn’t to say this team is invincible at Jerry World, after a dubious victory over Detroit the last time out. And when the offense needs to get tough yards or is in goal-to-go situations? Better not rely too much on this run game. And HC Mike McCarthy still makes some head-scratching decisions when it comes to clock management – especially as it pertains to salting away a lead – yet that probably also cuts back to Dallas’ inconsistency on the ground. But QB Dak Prescott and his league-leading 36 TD passes will get some MVP votes, and this defense can rack up script-flipping plays with the best of them. It’s been 28 years since Dallas advanced beyond the divisional round … but is this the year the Cowboys do it?

5. Buffalo Bills

Since a 5-5 start that culminated with the – deserved? – firing of OC Ken Dorsey, they’ve rebounded to go 6-1 down the stretch and recovered sufficiently to add a fourth consecutive AFC East championship. But can they finally snatch the title Western New York has been pining for since the franchise’s AFL glory days? The offense – and QB Josh Allen – hasn’t been as nuclear since Joe Brady replaced Dorsey but has certainly been steadier, reduced unforced errors and run the ball more effectively (Allen in particular) – all attributes that tend to stoke playoff success. Then factor in a defense that’s also elevated down the stretch despite its litany of personnel issues and the newly won No. 2 seed that should mean two more home games in Orchard Park? You don’t want to cross this Mafia.

4. Los Angeles Rams

They may only rank as the NFC’s sixth seed, but LA is hot and healthy – so often a lethal combo entering the postseason. Since a Week 10 bye, the Rams are 7-1, a torrid stretch that largely coincides with the return of QB Matthew Stafford and RB Kyren Williams. If All-Pro voting was limited to the season’s second half, both players might get selected, Stafford as surgical as he’s been at any point in his career since convalescing from a Week 8 injury to his throwing thumb. Did we mention WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, one of 2023’s rookie sensations, are at Stafford’s disposal while now 10-time Pro Bowler Aaron Donald continues to anchor a defense that only needs to be average – which it is – for this club to win. It would come as no surprise if HC Sean McVay, 37, winds up coaching in his third Super Bowl in six seasons.

3. Baltimore Ravens

You’d like to have more confidence in a team that captured the AFC’s No. 1 seed and sports a league-best 13-4 record. And nearly all the key ingredients seem to be present: a talented defense that surrendered the NFL’s fewest points; an evolving, multi-dimensional offense that can attack in a variety of ways atypical of its previous iteration; the best kicker, Justin Tucker, who’s probably ever graced the planet; and there’s even the possible return of All-Pro TE Mark Andrews (ankle/fibula). Then there’s QB Lamar Jackson, deservedly presumed to soon take home his second MVP trophy. The Ravens also tend to play their best against the top of the NFL’s food chain – right, 49ers? Yet there’s an elephant in the room – more than one actually. Baltimore too often struggles to put teams away, notorious for coasting and coughing up fourth-quarter leads. And there’s just no escaping how badly Jackson has struggled in his four playoff starts – only one ending with a win – particularly as it pertains to passing the ball, which is now a much bigger component of Baltimore’s playbook. This team looks like a juggernaut – as did the top-seeded 2019 squad that went one and done in the post, ambushed at home by the Tennessee Titans. The mortgage? Sorry, but just wouldn’t bet it on the Ravens.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Does 11-6 rate as a down year? Absolutely. Is the passing game notably diluted – even from last year’s edition, the first post-Hill? Yep. But the kings are not dead, not yet. HC Andy Reid, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce and DT Chris Jones remain as the core of a group that’s aiming to reach a fourth Super Bowl in five seasons. And the Jones-led defense might be the best ever fielded under the purview of Reid, including some of the formidable units he had in Philadelphia. That group, combined with RB Isiah Pacheco’s ferocious running, also gives K.C. the ability to shorten games and win using a gritty style they’re rarely employed before. Yes, Mahomes will likely have to go on the road in postseason for the first time in his career – but you counting out a two-time league and Super Bowl MVP given his track record?

1. San Francisco 49ers

Where to start? Their nine Pro Bowlers led the league, a testament to the quality of this roster. Brock Purdy, the league’s most efficient quarterback (NFL-high 113.0 passer rating), has an unparalleled array of weapons in RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle and WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk – the first quartet at that combination of positions to produce at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage apiece. Pick your poison, so many teams getting a terminal dose in 2023. Throw in Trent Williams, still the league’s best left tackle, and a topflight defense that can bring relentless pressure with its front four – either burying quarterbacks or forcing them into crushing mistakes – and it becomes further evident how hard it is to find a weakness on this team, which is seeking its first championship in 29 years yet seems likely to at least participate in the NFC title round for the fourth time in five seasons. And given how teams like Dallas and Philadelphia folded against San Francisco this season, sure feels like master play caller Kyle Shanahan and crew – assuming they avoid another debilitating injury like Purdy’s in the 2022 NFC championship game – are on their way to bigger and better things, especially given Super Bowl 58 would be their next game away from the Bay area.

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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.