NFL playoff picture: How 5 open berths claimed, Cowboys’ NFC East path

Every week for the duration of the 2023 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide real-time updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the schedule (through Thursday’s game or Saturday’s, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on the evening of Jan. 7.

Here’s where things stand at the moment:

NFL playoff picture entering Week 18

AFC playoff picture

yz – 1. Baltimore Ravens (13-3), AFC North champions: They brought home the division crown, conference first-round bye and home-field advantage by pummeling Miami on Sunday. The only question left for the regular season is how Baltimore approaches its finale against archrival Pittsburgh and whether the Ravens will give many (or any) key players multiple weeks off. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers

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x – 2. Miami Dolphins (11-5), AFC East leaders: They saw their hopes for home-field advantage go up in a massive cloud of smoke Sunday in Baltimore. Lose on Sunday, and the Dolphins likely won’t be playing any postseason home games as such a defeat would confer the division title to Buffalo. Remaining schedule: vs. Bills

y – 3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6), AFC West champions: It took longer than usual, but they secured their eighth consecutive division crown while locking into the third seed. Their victory also eliminated the Bengals and Broncos. Remaining schedule: at Chargers

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7), AFC South leaders: Much-needed win over hapless Carolina means the Jags are one win from repeating as division champions by virtue of what would be a 5-1 record against AFC South foes. Remaining schedule: at Titans

x – 5. Cleveland Browns (11-5), wild card No. 1: They’ve now won four in a row, enough to graduate to postseason for the third time since their 1999 rebirth. However Baltimore’s win Sunday locks the Dawg Pound into the fifth seed and a wild-card round visit to the AFC South champions. Remaining schedule: at Bengals

6. Buffalo Bills (10-6), wild card No. 2: They’ve got pretty much everything they wanted – meaning end the regular season on a five-game winning streak Sunday night in Miami, and Buffalo will have resurrected itself into AFC East champions … again. Remaining schedule: at Dolphins

7. Indianapolis Colts (9-7), wild card No. 3: Huge game Saturday night against Houston will determine if they’re a wild card … or even kings of the AFC South. Remaining schedule: vs. Texans

8. Houston Texans (9-7), out of playoff field: Huge game Saturday night at Indianapolis will determine if they’re a wild card … or even kings of the AFC South. Remaining schedule: at Colts

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7), out of playoff field: They extended Mike Tomlin’s career-long streak of non-losing seasons as a head coach after taking out the Seahawks. Still, head-to-head losses to Houston and Indianapolis seemingly remain crippling. Pittsburgh’s simplest paths to postseason would be by beating Baltimore and hoping either the Bills or Jags lose. Remaining schedule: at Ravens

NFC playoff picture

yz – 1. San Francisco 49ers (12-4), NFC West champions: They won Sunday, while the Eagles and Lions didn’t – meaning the Niners won’t be leaving the Bay Area for another football game … unless they reach Super Bowl 58. Remaining schedule: vs. Rams

x – 2. Dallas Cowboys (11-5), NFC East leaders: They extended their winning streak at AT&T Stadium to 16 games by virtue of a dubious win over Detroit on Saturday night. But ‘America’s Team’ reclaimed first place in the division Sunday thanks to Philly’s loss and a better record (8-3) in conference games. Beat Washington, and the NFC East’s run of non-consecutive champions since 2005 will extend another year as the Cowboys would dethrone the Eagles. Remaining schedule: at Commanders

y – 3. Detroit Lions (11-5), NFC North champions: They went for the win in Dallas, and came up short … apparently. Looking more like they’ll be welcoming Rams QB Matthew Stafford home in a few weeks as Lions can’t be worse than third seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8), NFC South leaders: They came up short Sunday against New Orleans, Tampa’s four-game winning streak halted. But Bucs can still earn third straight division crown by beating Carolina in Week 18. Otherwise? Lose and Tampa Bay goes home, barring ties. Remaining schedule: at Panthers

x – 5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5), wild card No.1: Shocking loss to Arizona puts exclamation point on reigning NFC champs’ late-season meltdown. They need a win Sunday plus a Dallas loss to retain NFC East throne. Remaining schedule: at Giants

x – 6. Los Angeles Rams (9-7), wild card No. 2: They narrowly escaped the Giants on Sunday afternoon. But they got a gift after the win, the Steelers’ defeat of the Seahawks buckling LA into a wild-card spot. Rams would drop to seventh seed if they wind up tied at 9-8 with Pack. Remaining schedule: at 49ers

7. Green Bay Packers (8-8), wild card No. 3: Seattle’s loss opened the door to a wild card. Beat Chicago on Sunday, and the Pack are postseason-bound – partially due to a strength-of-victory tiebreaker advantage on the Seahawks. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears

8. Seattle Seahawks (8-8), out of playoff field: Major loss to Steelers, but they can get back into the field with a Week 18 win and Green Bay loss. Remaining schedule: at Cardinals

9. New Orleans Saints (8-8), out of playoff field: Crucial win at Tampa on Sunday keeps them alive for division title – win next week plus a Bucs loss – or wild card. Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons

10. Minnesota Vikings (7-9), out of playoff field: Still a remote shot at postseason despite getting blown out by Green Bay on Sunday night. Vikes need to win at Ford Field, hope the Packers and Seahawks lose and need the Falcons to win the NFC South. Remaining schedule: at Lions

(Note: The Chicago Bears are in 11th place overall in the NFC standings but have been eliminated from playoff contention.)

12. Atlanta Falcons (7-9), out of playoff field: Still a faint heartbeat for the NFC South championship after three losses in four weeks. They’d need to beat New Orleans and hope the Bucs lose at Carolina. Remaining schedule: at Saints

x – clinched playoff berth

y – clinched division title

z – clinched first-round bye and home-field advantage

NFL playoff clinching scenarios entering Week 18

Buffalo clinches AFC East division title with:

BUF win

Buffalo clinches playoff berth with:

BUF tie ORPIT loss or tie ORJAX loss or tie ORHOU-IND tie

Houston clinches AFC South division title with:

HOU win + JAX loss or tie

Houston clinches playoff berth with:

HOU win ORHOU tie + JAX loss + PIT loss or tie

Indianapolis clinches AFC South division title with:

IND win + JAX loss or tie ORIND tie + JAX loss

Indianapolis clinches playoff berth with:

IND win ORIND tie + PIT loss or tie

​Jacksonville clinches AFC South division title with:

JAX win ORJAX tie + IND-HOU tie

Jacksonville clinches playoff berth with:

JAX tie + PIT loss or tie ORPIT loss + DEN loss or tie + HOU-IND doesn’t end in tie

Miami clinches AFC East division title with:

MIA win or tie

Pittsburgh clinches playoff berth with:

PIT win + BUF loss ORPIT win + JAX loss or tie ORPIT win + HOU-IND tie ORPIT tie + JAX loss + HOU-IND doesn’t end in tie ORJAX loss + DEN win + HOU-IND doesn’t end in tie

Atlanta clinches NFC South division title with:

ATL win + TB loss

Dallas clinches NFC East division title with:

DAL win ORDAL tie + PHI tie ORPHI loss

Green Bay clinches playoff berth with:

GB win ORGB tie + SEA loss or tie + NO loss or tie ORGB tie + SEA loss + TB loss ORGB tie + SEA tie + TB loss or tie ORMIN loss or tie + SEA loss + TB loss ORMIN loss or tie + SEA loss + NO loss

Minnesota clinches playoff berth with:

MIN win + GB loss + SEA loss + TB loss ORMIN win + GB loss + SEA loss + NO loss 

New Orleans clinches NFC South division title with:

NO win + TB loss or tie ORNO tie + TB loss

New Orleans clinches playoff berth with:

NO win + SEA loss or tie + GB loss or tie ORNO tie + SEA loss + GB loss

Philadelphia clinches NFC East division title with:

PHI win + DAL loss or tie ORPHI tie + DAL loss

Seattle clinches playoff berth with:

SEA win + GB loss or tie ORSEA tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie ORSEA tie + GB loss + NO loss or tie 

Tampa Bay clinches NFC South division title with:

TB win ORTB tie + NO loss or tie

Tampa Bay clinches playoff berth with:

TB tie + SEA loss + GB loss or tie

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