Our worst NFL predictions from 2023, explained: What did we get wrong?

Put those New Year’s resolutions on hold, for now. It’s time to take stock of 2023.

While there are still two weeks of play left in the NFL regular season, the end of the calendar year naturally provides a window for reflection. And as fans game out the playoff picture possibilities for their favorite team – or look ahead to free agency and the draft – this seemed like the perfect time to revisit some of our preseason predictions. And while there was plenty to boast about, there were plenty of regrettable choices as well.

With that in mind, we asked USA TODAY Sports’ NFL reporters and columnists: What was your worst preseason prediction about the 2023 NFL season, and where did things go wrong?

Their answers:

Buying into the Jets

I wish this one wasn’t as easy as it is, but this is what happens when you buy into offseason hype, and in particular when said hype relates to the New York Football Jets. We all know how spectacularly the Aaron Rodgers experiment blew up, though, if we’re being honest, this was more a failure of general manager Joe Douglas’ unwillingness to upgrade an offensive line that was an obvious flaw over the offseason. That mistake was compounded when Douglas opted to sit on his hands and not make a corresponding move to acquire a better quarterback once Rodgers went down with his Achilles injury. Doubling down on Zach Wilson, his selection with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 draft, sealed New York’s offensive misery and all but confirmed a lost season, even though the Jets held out unrealistic hope that Rodgers would be able to return well ahead of schedule for a late push. 

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So, yeah, having the Jets — a team that entered the season in a 12-year playoff drought — as winners of the AFC East (something they haven’t done since 2002) and reaching the AFC championship game wasn’t my best choice.

On another note, and in the spirit of deflecting my personal blame and spreading it to others, I also want to point out how all of us who did preseason predictions failed to give the Cleveland Browns any love at all.

– Lorenzo Reyes

My worst preseason prediction was picking the Jets to win the AFC East this year. Sure, it all went wrong when Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon four plays into his Jets career. But as you saw the Jets season flounder without him, they obviously have some flaws, like one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, that would have likely prevented them from winning their division. Something to remember with any NFL predictions: Don’t watch ‘Hard Knocks’ because it’ll make you into a believer of any team. Even the Jets.

– Safid Deen

Commanders as playoff contenders

Wow. There is so much to choose from. Did I forecast A-Rod tearing an Achilles tendon? Or Joe Burrow limping around for the better part of two months? Nah. So, the injury factor derailed some of my picks. But there’s no such excuse for my selection of the Washington Commanders making the NFC playoffs as a wild-card entrant. Silly me. Guessing that I over-thought the whole Dan Snyder windfall effect. Like really blew it. The Commanders – or as I prefer to call them, the Commodores – are 4-11. I bet big on Eric Bieniemy putting his stamp on the offense. I’m swearing that Bieniemy’s departure from Kansas City has something to do with the perils of the Chiefs’ offense, but I’m also swearing that the Commodores offense would be better off if Bieniemy could have brought Patrick Mahomes with him. Sam Howell? Nice try. But maybe Jacoby Brissett was a better QB choice for winning now. And with premium D-line talents Chase Young and Montez Sweat traded away, this was not meant to be a leap into the playoff picture for Riverboat Ron. As for my own gambling, choosing Denver and Pittsburgh to emerge as longshot playoff teams looked a whole lot better at the beginning of December than now. Oops.

– Jarrett Bell

Believing in the Panthers and Bryce Young

I picked the Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South and Bryce Young to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. The result? A cursing and meddling owner, a fired head coach 11 games into his first season, reports of backstabbing within the coaching staff and two wins. At least they’ll have the first overall pick next year. Wait, at the moment, that actually belongs to the Chicago Bears, who traded last year’s No. 1 pick to Carolina so the Panthers could select … Young. The play of the second overall pick, C.J. Stroud, makes only my prognostication of a successful 2023 for Carolina a worse choice than that one.  

– Chris Bumbaca

Arthur Smith for Coach of the Year

Coach of the Year is one of most difficult awards to prognosticate, as the criteria is typically murky. It’s one of the few cases where you have to calibrate for expectations and preconceived notions, as the honor rarely goes to the most accomplished coach or the leader of the team with the best record. I thought Arthur Smith would make for a suitable choice, as if the Atlanta Falcons could get a division title berth and 10 or so wins, he would be a formidable candidate.

Oops. With the Falcons standing at 7-8 with rapidly fading hopes of making the playoffs, Smith has invited hot-seat speculation rather than any accolades. And many of Atlanta’s issues can be traced directly back to the coach, from the hubris needed to enter the season with Desmond Ridder as the unquestioned starter to the perplexing refusal to make the most of the team’s premier skill-position players. Maybe I’ll get it right next year.

– Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz

Chargers earning a playoff berth, competing with Chiefs for division title

I predicted the Chargers would be a playoff team and threaten the Chiefs for the AFC West crown. My prediction got off to a rocky start when the Chargers started 0-2 and then later fell off a cliff when Justin Herbert sustained a season-ending injury in Week 14. Herbert’s injury is when the Chargers hit rock bottom. But the truth is, the Chargers underachieved all season. They are 0-6 in games decided by three points or less and have one of the worst performing defenses in all of football. The team’s shortcomings ultimately cost head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco their jobs. Instead of earning a playoff berth and threatening the Chiefs, the Chargers are eyeing vacation plans and are in prime position for a top-eight pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Yeah, that was my worst preseason prediction.   

– Tyler Dragon