NFL playoff picture: Browns punch ticket but have chance to upgrade
Every week for the duration of the 2023 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide real-time updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the schedule (through Thursday’s game or Saturday’s, if applicable).
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on the evening of Jan. 7.
Here’s where things stand at the moment:
NFL playoff picture during Week 17
AFC playoff picture
x – 1. Baltimore Ravens (12-3), AFC North leaders: Decisive win at San Francisco sets them up for an even bigger game Sunday. Beat Miami, and the Ravens clinch the division, first-round bye and home-field advantage. Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers
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x – 2. Miami Dolphins (11-4), AFC East leaders: They secured a long-awaited victory against a team with a winning record (Dallas) – and locked into the playoff field – continuing to apply pressure to the front-running Ravens in the conference while not giving any more ground to the hard-charging Bills in the divisional race. Win out, and the Fins snag the No. 1 seed. Win at Baltimore, and they wrap the AFC East. Lose out, and they could be a wild card. Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6), AFC West leaders: Coal in the collective K.C. stocking. Not only did the reigning champs fail to secure their eighth consecutive division crown on Christmas by stumbling against Las Vegas, they played themselves out of any shot at the AFC’s top spot. But one more win, and division is theirs. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, at Chargers
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7), AFC South leaders: They’ve lost four in a row and five of seven … and looked like a team that should have a top-five draft pick after getting embarrassed at Tampa on Sunday. Still, the Jags are hanging on to first place by retaining the tiebreaker (4-1 division record) to hold off the Texans and Colts – they swept Indy – who are also 8-7. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, at Titans
x – 5. Cleveland Browns (11-5), wild card No. 1: They’ve now won four in a row, enough to graduate to postseason for the third time since their 1999 rebirth. The Browns can still win the AFC North and even the conference’s No. 1 seed with one more win, two losses by Baltimore, and a Miami defeat in Week 18. Remaining schedule: at Bengals
6. Buffalo Bills (9-6), wild card No. 2: Despite all the adversity, on and off the field, there’s a strong heartbeat here – and this team persevered Saturday night to rejoin the playoff field. The division crown remains a possibility if the Bills can sweep their final two games and hope Miami also loses to Baltimore. Either way, win out, and Buffalo is in. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, at Dolphins
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-7), wild card No. 3: Still highly viable postseason candidate … despite getting smacked Sunday. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Texans
8. Houston Texans (8-7), out of playoff field: Still highly viable postseason candidate … despite getting smacked Sunday. They can even scales with Indianapolis in Week 18. Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, at Colts
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7), out of playoff field: If nothing else, they took a big step toward salvaging Mike Tomlin’s career-long streak of non-losing seasons as a head coach after completing a season sweep of Cincinnati. Still, head-to-head losses to Houston and Indianapolis are among Pittsburgh’s problems. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, at Ravens
10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7), out of playoff field: A winless mark (0-5) against the division and a 3-7 record in conference are shaping as season-killing detriments … to say nothing of an upcoming trip to Arrowhead. Remaining schedule: at Chiefs, vs. Browns
11. Las Vegas Raiders (7-8), out of playoff field: Despite dealing Chiefs a huge blow Monday, the Silver and Black remain very long shots to reach postseason … though there are still paths to AFC West title or a wild card. Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Broncos
12. Denver Broncos (7-8), out of playoff field: And Russ is cooked after that Christmas Eve debacle – though mathematically this team, now on a two-game skid, will remain alive a bit longer for the AFC West and a wild card. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Raiders
NFC playoff picture
y – 1. San Francisco 49ers (11-4), NFC West champions: Convincing loss Monday drops them into three-way tie with Philly and Detroit in terms of the NFC’s best record. But Niners’ 9-1 mark in conference – including wins over the Eagles and Cowboys – make them best bet to finish first, possibly even this weekend. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Rams
x – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (11-4), NFC East leaders: Back atop the division, they strengthened their grip on first place by eliminating the Giants on Monday, 24 hours after the Cowboys lost to Miami. The Eagles have guaranteed an opportunity to defend their conference crown but haven’t necessarily looked up to the task as of late. But progress was seemingly achieved on Christmas, when Philly also moved ahead of Detroit thanks to its strength of victory tiebreaker. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, at Giants
y – 3. Detroit Lions (11-4), NFC North champions: A Christmas Eve win secured the Lions’ first-ever NFC North title and first division championship of any kind since 1993 (when Detroit was in the old NFC Central). Still a shot at home-field advantage here. Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, vs. Vikings
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), NFC South leaders: A fourth win in a row – plus New Orleans’ Week 16 defeat – served the surging Bucs well, and they will put a bow on the division Sunday by beating New Orleans. Remaining schedule: vs. Saints, at Panthers
x – 5. Dallas Cowboys (10-5), wild card No. 1: They’ve lost two in a row, both on the road, and that’s exactly where they seem likely to find themselves once the postseason begins with the Eagles now decidedly in command in the race for the NFC East crown. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, at Commanders
6. Los Angeles Rams (8-7), wild card No. 2: Last Thursday’s defeat of the Saints elevates LA to the sixth spot. Win out, and Rams snatch a wild card – or win this week and hope Seattle doesn’t. Remaining schedule: at Giants, at 49ers
7. Seattle Seahawks (8-7), wild card No. 3: They’ve pulled wins out of the fire two weeks in a row, Sunday’s victory in Nashville moving the Seahawks ahead of Minnesota. Next, a de facto playoff game against Pittsburgh. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Cardinals
8. Minnesota Vikings (7-8), out of playoff field: A slew of turnovers cost them dearly against Detroit, ejecting the Vikes from a wild-card spot. But wins over the Falcons, Saints and Packers help … for now. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at Lions
9. Atlanta Falcons (7-8), out of playoff field: Big win over Indianapolis – and previous ones over New Orleans and Green Bay – allowed Atlanta to pick up some ground. Remaining schedule: at Bears, at Saints
10. Green Bay Packers (7-8), out of playoff field: Back on track (sort of) after taking care of the Panthers on Sunday, but they need some breaks. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Bears
11. New Orleans Saints (7-8), out of playoff field: They lost control of their postseason path last week. Gotta have upcoming game at Tampa. Remaining schedule: at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons
x – clinched playoff berth
y – clinched division title
NFL playoff clinching scenarios in Week 17
Baltimore clinches AFC North division title with:
BAL win or tie OR
Baltimore clinches AFC’s No. 1 seed with:
BAL win
Buffalo clinches playoff berth with:
BUF win + PIT loss or tie + CIN loss or tie ORBUF win + PIT loss or tie + JAX loss or tie ORBUF win + PIT loss or tie + HOU loss or tie + IND loss or tie ORBUF win + CIN loss or tie + JAX loss or tie ORBUF win + CIN loss or tie + HOU loss or tie + IND loss or tie ORBUF tie + PIT loss + CIN loss + JAX loss ORBUF tie + PIT loss + CIN loss + HOU loss or tie ORBUF tie + PIT loss + CIN loss + IND loss or tie ORBUF tie + PIT loss + JAX loss + HOU loss or tie ORBUF tie + PIT loss + JAX loss + IND loss or tie ORBUF tie + PIT loss + HOU loss + IND loss ORBUF tie + CIN loss + JAX loss + HOU loss or tie ORBUF tie + CIN loss + JAX loss + IND loss or tie ORBUF tie + CIN loss + HOU loss + IND loss
Jacksonville clinches playoff berth and AFC South division title with:
JAX win + IND loss + HOU loss
Kansas City clinches playoff berth and AFC West division title with:
KC win or tie ORLV loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
Miami clinches AFC East division title with:
MIA win or tie ORBUF loss or tie
LA Rams clinch playoff berth with:
LAR win + SEA loss ORLAR win + GB-MIN tie
Philadelphia clinches NFC East Division title with:
PHI win + DAL loss or tie ORPHI tie + DAL loss
San Francisco clinches NFC’s No. 1 seed with:
SF win + DET loss + PHI loss
Seattle clinches playoff berth with:
SEA win + GB-MIN tie
Tampa Bay clinches playoff berth and NFC South division title with:
TB win ORTB tie + ATL loss
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