NFL playoff picture: AFC contender’s faceplant could prove costly
Every week for the duration of the 2023 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide real-time updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Thursday’s game or Saturday’s, if applicable).
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday night, Jan. 7.
Here’s where things stand with Week 14 of the 2023 season complete:
NFC playoff picture
x – 1. San Francisco 49ers (10-3), NFC West leaders: They became the first team to clinch a berth courtesy of the Packers’ loss Monday night. With wins in hand against the Eagles and Cowboys, the Niners had previously moved into the top seed following Dallas’ defeat of Philadelphia on Sunday evening. Next up, Arizona – a team the Niners have beaten three times in a row. Remaining schedule: at Cardinals, vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams
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2. Dallas Cowboys (10-3), NFC East leaders: With a 15th consecutive home win, they wrested first place from Philadelphia on Sunday night. However, ‘America’s Team’ will give it back if the Eagles win out given the tiebreakers will revert to Philly’s favor given how the schedule unfolds − and Dallas’ remaining games are no cakewalk. Remaining schedule: at Bills, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders
3. Detroit Lions (9-4), NFC North leaders: Sunday’s loss in Chicago probably won’t haunt them in terms of winning the division. But any hopes of quietly snagging the conference’s No. 1 seed are quickly slipping away after a second loss in the past three games. Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos, at Vikings, at Cowboys, vs. Vikings
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7), NFC South leaders: Sunday’s win at Atlanta vaults the Bucs to the top of the division thanks to a very slim lead over the Falcons in the common-games tiebreaker given their season split and identical 3-1 mark in NFC South games. Still, hardly time to relax given both Atlanta and New Orleans are also 6-7. Remaining schedule: at Packers, vs. Jaguars, vs. Saints, at Panthers
5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3), wild card No. 1: Their loss at Dallas knocked them from first place in the conference to fifth. However win out, against a very manageable schedule, and the reigning NFC champs will again be kings of the NFC East. A seemingly tired bunch could benefit from an extra day off ahead of Week 15’s Monday nighter at Seattle. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants
6. Minnesota Vikings (7-6), wild card No. 2: Winning 3-0 is still a win and strengthened the Vikes’ prospects on a weekend when the Packers, Falcons, Rams and Seahawks lost. Minnesota could still make a run at the NFC North given both dates with Detroit are ahead. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions
7. Green Bay Packers (6-7), wild card No. 3: They retain the conference’s final wild-card spot despite seeing their three-game winning streak come to an end Monday night against the Giants. No margin for error amid a five-team cluster of 6-7 teams, the Pack’s defeat of the Rams and 4-4 record in conference games presently serving them well in the tiebreaker department. Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Vikings, vs. Bears
8. Los Angeles Rams (6-7), out of playoff field:Heartbreaking loss in Baltimore on Sunday, but they’re still knocking on the door …. though the Week 9 loss at Green Bay without QB Matthew Stafford could ultimately hurt quite a bit. Remaining schedule: vs. Commanders, vs. Saints, at Giants, at 49ers
9. Seattle Seahawks (6-7), out of playoff field: That’s five defeats in their past six outings, Sunday’s loss at San Francisco coming with QB1 Geno Smith unable to play. Dropping both games to the Rams could be a lingering issue. And they’re only ahead of Atlanta by virtue of a very slim lead in NFC games, Seattle’s 5-5 mark a half-game better. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Titans, vs. Steelers, at Cardinals
10. Atlanta Falcons (6-7), out of playoff field: They plummeted from fourth in the conference after losing at home to the Bucs. But the NFC South remains eminently winnable. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, vs. Colts, at Bears, at Saints
11. New Orleans Saints (6-7), out of playoff field: They didn’t make up any ground despite blowing out the Panthers. But the NFC South remains eminently winnable. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, at Rams, at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons
AFC playoff picture
1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3), AFC North leaders: The first AFC club to 10 wins, they retain the conference’s top spot after Miami was upset by Tennessee on Monday night. Baltimore’s next three contests will come against division leaders. Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers
2. Miami Dolphins (9-4), AFC East leaders: Penal loss cost them the opportunity to move back atop the conference and dropped them to 6-3 in AFC games (same as Baltimore). Their Week 9 loss to Kansas City also means they can’t afford to let the Chiefs catch up to them. Still, win out and clinch home field and the bye. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5), AFC West leaders: A 6-2 record in AFC games and wins over Miami and Jacksonville keep K.C. viable to play a sixth consecutive AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium. Sunday’s loss to Buffalo was damaging to that aim, but the final four games shouldn’t be. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5), AFC South leaders: On the plus side, QB Trevor Lawrence was able to play through his ankle injury Sunday and survived the game. Even better, on a day when the Jags lost, so did their closest division pursuers, Houston and Indianapolis. But two setbacks in six days pretty much eliminates any hopes of home-field advantage. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans
5. Cleveland Browns (8-5), wild card No. 1: Things are looking up by Lake Erie. The Browns not only vanquished the Jaguars, they gladly settled on their new QB1, deserving Joe Flacco, for the rest of the season. Throw in the fact Cleveland picked up a game on Houston, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh in the wild-card race, and the Factory of Sadness could be grinding to a halt. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6), wild card No. 2: Despite consecutive losses to previously two-win teams and falling out of the field following Thursday night’s loss to New England, they’re back in after watching so much of their competition trip Sunday … though staying there won’t be easy considering Pittsburgh’s remaining opponents. A win over Cincinnati, a common-games tiebreaker against Indianapolis – Week 15’s opponent – and a 5-4 record in AFC games give the Steelers the desired tiebreaker combo … for now. Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-6), wild card No. 3: Beat Pittsburgh on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium, and the Colts pick up a crucial tiebreaker here … or else suffer a potentially crippling setback amid this jumbled field after Indianapolis coughed up its four-game winning streak Sunday in Cincinnati. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans
8. Houston Texans (7-6), out of playoff field: Rough loss to the New York Jets on Sunday, primarily so due to rookie QB C.J. Stroud landing in concussion protocol. A 4-4 record in AFC competition keeps them this high … for whatever it’s worth at this juncture, when that wider tiebreaker takes precedence with so many compressed teams. Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at Colts
9. Denver Broncos (7-6), out of playoff field: Sunday’s defeat of the Chargers helps. Last week’s loss at Houston and a 4-5 mark in the AFC don’t. Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Chargers, at Raiders
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6), out of playoff field: QB Jake Browning’s impressive performances the past two weeks have restored them to the fringes of relevance … though a 3-6 record in conference matchups will likely be tough to overcome, even after knocking off Indianapolis. Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Steelers, at Chiefs, vs. Browns
11. Buffalo Bills (7-6), out of playoff field: Despite all the adversity, on and off the field, there’s a strong heartbeat here – especially after knocking off the Chiefs at Arrowhead again. But Buffalo isn’t turning recent wins into playoff progress yet, losses to Cincinnati and Denver keeping them suppressed for the time being. And yet the division crown is again a possibility if the Bills can sweep Miami and get a little help. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, at Chargers, vs. Patriots, at Dolphins
x – clinched playoff berth
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