A cursory glance at the Week 11 college football schedule would suggest that the results will bring a measure of clarity to the playoff picture. The fact of the matter is things are fairly cut and dried already, and only an infusion of chaos that has been conspicuously absent all season will alter the list of actual contenders.
Even so, all of said contenders will be taking the field Saturday, and most of their games should be worth a look. We begin our ranking of the seven most watchable contests with the championship candidate that could be in for its first four-quarter fight of the campaign.
No. 2 Michigan at No. 9 Penn State
Time/TV: Noon ET, Fox.
Why watch: At last, the Wolverines face a ranked opponent, and one that is in a must-win situation at that. After coming up short at Ohio State last month, the Nittany Lions absolutely positively have to have this one to keep any playoff aspirations alive. For all the off-field drama surrounding the Michigan program, there’s been very little of it in game action with the Wolverines outscoring their first nine opponents by an average of 40.7-6.7. The Michigan offense, directed by QB J.J. McCarthy and featuring RB Blake Corum and WR Roman Wilson, is converting at a 55% clip on third down. But on the other side Penn State leads the Big Ten in third-down defense, allowing a conversion rate of 28.7%, with DL Adisa Isaac and Zane Durant leading the effort in the trenches. Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar is coming off arguably his best performance of the season at Maryland. He might need to be even better to solve the Michigan air defense that has swiped 12 passes and returned four to the house, including a pair by Mike Sainristil.
Why it could disappoint: Though it will surely be the subject of pregame discussion, the ongoing signal stealing investigation isn’t likely to mar the game action at this point. But if the contest is another defensive slog as Penn State’s game at Ohio State was, or if one team finds its offense while the other struggles, the fun factor will be severely curtailed. In the latter scenario, Michigan is the more likely candidate to secure a multi-score cushion with its more proven commodities.
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No. 10 Mississippi at No. 1 Georgia
Time/TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Why watch: The day’s second top-10 showdown finds the Bulldogs in the familiar position of looking to close out the SEC East race. The Rebels’ slim hopes of winning the West might be extinguished by the time this game kicks off, but a monumental road upset would keep them in the at-large playoff conversation as well as set them up for a New Year’s Six berth. The good news for Ole Miss is its triumvirate of QB Jaxson Dart, RB Quinshon Judkins and WR Tre Harris could have similar success against the tough Georgia defense as Mizzou managed last week. Georgia QB Carson Beck has his completion rate up to a healthy 72.2%, and RBs Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton are reliable drive finishers. DB Trey Washington is the Rebels’ leading stopper, but his friends in front of him need to do better to make sure the action doesn’t reach him quite so often.
Why it could disappoint: Though Ole Miss does have a nice win against LSU on its ledger, there’s still a major ‘prove it’ factor with this team on the road against top-tier competition. While this Bulldogs’ team hasn’t been as dominant as last year’s version, a UGa blowout has a higher probability than a Rebel Rout.
No. 14 Utah at No. 5 Washington
Time/TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox.
Why watch: The Huskies survived an entertaining shootout with Southern California in prime time. They now face an opponent with very different strengths as the Utes look to shut down their high-octane attack. Huskies QB Michael Penix was helped by a career night from RB Dillon Johnson last week in the Coliseum. Opposing the likes of Utes LB Levani Damuni and DB Cole Bishop will make for tougher sledding on the ground, but WR Ja’Lynn Polk could have success finding seams in the middle. Utah QB Bryson Barnes and RB Ja’Quinden Jackson were able to subdue Arizona State by conventional means last time out, but DB Dominique Hampton and the Huskies’ back seven must also be cognizant when Utah all-purpose weapon Sione Vaki, usually a safety, lines up in the offensive backfield.
Why it could disappoint: Though shaky at times, the Washington defense has for the most part handled opponents with limited explosive options. If this does become a track meet, Utah could have a hard time matching scores.
No. 12 Tennessee at No. 15 Missouri
Time/TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
Why watch: The Volunteers still have a modicum of an iota of a mathematical chance to win the SEC East, a scenario that will have their fans gritting their teeth and rooting for their despised former head coach at Ole Miss later in the day. But first they must pass this difficult road test, and the Tigers aren’t terribly interested in Tennessee’s situation as they look to continue their best season in several years. Overall Missouri acquitted itself well at top-ranked Georgia a week ago, although QB Brady Cook would undoubtedly like to have one particular throw back. Nevertheless, he and WR Luther Burden III along with RB Cody Schrader should have success against a Vols’ defense that hasn’t fared as well away from Knoxville. Tennessee QB Joe Milton can struggle on deep balls, but RBs Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small could help if the ground game gets rolling early.
Why it could disappoint: It depends which version of road Tennessee shows up. If it’s the one that couldn’t get out of its own way in Gainesville in September, the Tigers will make short work of it. But the Vols also played a strong first half in Tuscaloosa before the Crimson Tide got rolling, and a similar performance would make this a compelling game in Columbia.
Southern California at No. 6 Oregon
Time/TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, Fox.
Why watch: The Ducks remain on course for a possible rematch with Washington in the Pac-12 finale. They have a somewhat challenging home stretch to get through first, however, starting with this late-night date with the Trojans. Southern California can still be dangerous with its ability to score points, and we’ll quickly learn how the beleaguered defense will respond to a change in leadership. That would be a tall order in any week, but particularly going up against Ducks QB Bo Nix, who is up to 25 TD passes on the season with just two picks. Oregon RB Bucky Irving is also undoubtedly looking forward to testing the leaky Trojans’ front. USC QB Caleb Williams will again be faced with the prospect of having to be nearly perfect in hostile environs. His agility often helps him keep plays alive, but Ducks DEs Brandon Dorlis and Jordan Burch could prove harder to elude.
Why it could disappoint: Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but USC has to make this a shootout to keep it competitive. The Trojans very well could, but as long as Nix and Co. take care of the ball, any empty possessions their friends on the other platoon can generate will help the Ducks take control.
No. 8 Alabama at Kentucky
Time/TV: Noon ET, ESPN.
Why watch: The Crimson Tide essentially won the SEC West last week with their LSU victory, but they’ll make it official with a win here in Lexington. The Wildcats has had some moments this season, like a decisive drubbing of Florida, but has for the most part been overmatched by top-tier competition. Tide QB Jalen Milroe has made steady improvement with his passing accuracy, but as LSU learned last week he’s still equally dangerous as a running threat. He’ll likely draw added attention from Wildcats LB D’Eryk Jackson. The Kentucky offense is at its best when RB Ray Davis has room to operate, but that hasn’t been the case against the league’s more accomplished defenses. There are yards to be had against the Tide secondary if Wildcats QB Devin Leary isn’t under duress, but LB Dallas Turner produces a lot of that.
Why it could disappoint: History is not on the side of the Wildcats, who haven’t beaten the Tide since 1997. Kentucky must find some early success to keep its home fans involved, but a fast start from Alabama could put this on ice quickly.
Miami (Fla.) at No. 4 Florida State
Time/TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC.
Why watch: In terms of the ACC race, the Seminoles are already guaranteed a spot in the conference championship game. They have larger goals, however, and the Hurricanes would like nothing better than to spoil them. But Miami enters this rivalry showdown with its own issues, particularly on the offensive side of the ball after a dismal showing in a loss to North Carolina State. Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke has looked out of sorts in recent weeks. There’s not much experience behind him, however, so he might be asked to tough it out against LB Kalen DeLoach and the hard-hitting Florida State front. Seminoles QB Jordan Travis was without his top two targets last week at Pittsburgh but spread the ball well among TE Jaheim Bell and others. Hurricanes LB Francisco Mauigoa will lead the effort to make his job difficult.
Why it could disappoint: Florida State tends to keep injury updates close to the vest, so the availability of WRs Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson won’t be known for sure until kickoff. If they remain sidelined the game’s excitement potential is diminished, but their presence would make a runaway more likely given the Hurricanes’ offensive woes.