Trading Legend Larry Williams’ 2023 Market Forecast and Trading Setups
In a recent StockCharts special presentation, Larry Williams revealed his detailed forecast of the broader US market, gold, and stocks Apple (AAPL), AMD (AMD), and Amazon (AMZN).
A Quick Preface to Larry Williams’ Presentation
In the early 2000s, at the start of my finance-related career, I came across two old and dusty books at the Los Angeles Public Library—The Definitive Guide to Futures Trading Vol I and II by Larry Williams (two of his earlier publications).
What struck me about those books, in contrast to many others in the same game, was Larry’s novel, and almost angular way of thinking:
His ideas weren’t entirely derivative of what came before or what everyone else was currently doing;He regularly sought insights from economic data that many, if not most, traders weren’t looking at.And when he did look at technical patterns or economic data that most traders regularly viewed, Larry seemed to view the same thing from a completely different (and sometimes unexpected) angle, yielding not only different viewpoints, but, more importantly, different uses based on that angular shift in perspective.
If you’re not familiar with Larry Williams, here’s a brief summary of the events that made him something of a rock star in the trading world. His first big claim to fame was winning the 1987 World Cup Trading Championship, where he turned $10,000 (real money) into $1,000,000 in one year—a whopping 11,376% gain that, to this day, has never been beaten.
Ten years later, he coached his daughter, the actress Michelle Williams, to win the 1997 World Cup Trading Championship at the age of 17. She notched a 1,000% return. In addition to Larry Williams winning the same competition again in 2001, several of his students have also taken first place in the competition.
Larry Williams’ approach may (or may not) resonate with you. Perhaps the most you’ll get from his presentation (or reading at least two of his books for comparison) is the sheer creative impulse that drives him to incessantly discover new relations between market data that may yield actionable insights. Or, maybe his approach might nudge you to rethink your own approach to analyzing and trading markets. In short, there’s plenty of potential upside in viewing his presentation and very little to no downside if you decide it’s not for you.
Looking where nobody else is looking …
Here’s an example. Larry Williams’ read on inflation, and the general economy, is derived from data and reports that most traders tend not to look at. He covers several of these less-viewed reports in the presentation. Additionally, his method of putting it all together is also worth checking out. At the very least, you’ll see how his unique mix of data and arrangement allows him to construct an approach to the markets (and economy) that differs greatly from most other speculators and analysts.
Seeing the same things but from an entirely different angle…
A simple example is how he reverses the popular view on, say, gold and inflation. While most hold the popular view that gold responds to inflation, he sees it in reverse—that inflation tends to follow gold prices.
CHART 1: GOLD AND INFLATION. In this chart, you can see that inflation follows gold prices.
Chart source: Larry Williams. For illustrative purposes only.
In the presentation, he questions many common assumptions (such as the relationship between the Fed funds rate and inflation), putting them to the test and suggesting alternative and more actionable ways to look at them.
He also demonstrates the value of using cyclical models to time the markets. Yes, there’s a lot of skepticism surrounding cycle theory, but Larry Williams has his unique and down-to-earth take on it. If anything, he shows how a cyclical perspective can be pragmatic and actionable (see the chart of Apple Inc. below).
CHART 2: APPLE’S SEASONAL PATTERNS. Applying one of Williams’ indicators available in StockChartsACP, such as the Williams True Seasonal indicator, can help identify the seasonal pattern of any security. Here, you see that there’s a high probability of the stock price rising from June to September.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For illustrative purposes only.
Some of the unique trading indicators developed by Larry Williams are available as Plug-Ins in StockChartsACP. Explore the different indicators here.
Where Can I Watch the Presentation?
It’s free to members, and you can access it here. And if you’re not a member, you can sign up for a free trial. A membership gives you access to several tools, including a few of Larry Williams’ indicators, that you can use to level up your market analysis and, if used wisely, optimize your trading.